Inside Politics

Extra Bonus EKOS: Prorogation Polling Goodness!

So, prorogation. Is news of its existence really sweeping the nation? Is anyone out there paying attention?  

According to these latest fresh from the field findings from EKOS -- full report available here  --  fully 52.3 percent of respondents said that they were "clearly" aware that the prime minister  had "decided to prorogue - that is, suspend - Parliament until early March." 

An additional 15.2 would describe their level of awareness as "vague," and 32.5 percent who claimed to know nothing at all about it. Well, until they ended up on the phone with the EKOSbot, presumably. 

Clear -- as opposed to vague -- awareness was highest amongst self-declared Conservative supporters -- 66.9 percent, compared to  59.5 percent of Liberals, 51 percent of Greens, and 45.3 percent of New Democrats, and just 33.9 percent of Bloc voters.  Undecideds, not surprisingly, were more likely than partisans to be previously unaware of the PM's move -- 46.5 percent had no idea, compared to 35.3 percent of those in the clear, or on the clear, or however that should sentence should end.

So, how did they feel about it? Not all that warm and fuzzy, as it turns out. Out of those who told EKOS that they were aware that parliament had been prorogued, 68.7 58.7 percent are against it, including 40.5 percent who stand "strongly opposed." Just 31.4 percent said they supported the move, and 10 percent declined to share their feelings. (UPDATE/WHOOPSY-DAISY: Math and me, not friends. 40.5 + 18.2= 58.7! My humble apologies, pollwatchers. It wasn't as though I was deliberately trying to mislead! Swear!)

Not surprisingly, Conservatives were more likely to give it a thumbs up -- or at least somewhat up, with 59.5 percent backing their leader's play; even less surprisingly, supporters of opposition parties were far more likely to be spitting mad over the PM's move. Regionally, Atlantic Canadians were more likely to characterize themselves as "strongly opposed" than denizens of any other province, although Ontario was close behind, with 43.4 strongly and 18.5 percent somewhat opposed, which puts overall disgruntlement within the province at just over 61 percent.

Finally, respondents were asked to choose which of the following two statements comes closest to expressing their own personal point of view on prorogation:

  • By shutting down Parliament, Stephen Harper can consult directly with Canadians in preparation for the next federal budget; or

  • The elected house of Parliament is the proper place to conduct the business of the nation and suspending Parliament is antidemocratic
Almost two-thirds of respondents -- 63.6 percent -- picked "antidemocratic", with just 36.7 percent agreeing that the normal operation of parliament somehow interferes with the prime minister's ability to consult with Canadians directly. Interestingly, the breakdown amongst Conservative supporters is a virtual mirror image of the overall findings, although it's probably not great news for the government that 32.3 percent are on the other side. Nor, for that matter, that 68 percent of undecided voters feel the same. 

I suspect I may have more musings to share once I've had a chance to digest these latest findings, but in the meantime, feel free to chat about it in the comments. Oh, and as usual, the margin of error fluctuates throughout the report, with subsets, of course, being distinctly higher, but the overall numbers are generally within 2 to 4 percent, depending on the specific table. 

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