Inside Politics

EKOS of the Day (01/21/10): It's ... still tied-ish, apparently, Huh.

by Kady O'Malley Posted: January 21, 2010 7:44 AM Last Updated: January 21, 2010 8:08 AM
I confess, a lot of us -- well, at least the one of us behind this keyboard -- were predicting that the next set of polling numbers would show at least a two point bump for the government based on its near universally hailed response to the situation in crisis, and the Liberals holding steady just below the 30 percent threshold. That'll teach us to try to read the day-to-day mood of the country at large! Wait, no it won't. We'll just pretend we were right all along, just like we were when we nodded wisely in unison at the assertion that Nobody Cares About Prorogation. (Oh, I can hear the collective snarl of the commentariat now: "Oh, you just wait for the rallies on Saturday! Then we'll know whether Nobody Cares or not!" Conveniently, that particular line could easily come from either side.)

Anyway, behold the national numbers, taking into account, as one always does, the 1.95 percent margin of error:

Conservatives: 31.5 (+0.6)
Liberals: 30.9 (+1.6)
NDP: 14.9 (-0.4)
Green: 11.5 (-0.4)
Other: 2.1 (-0.2)
Bloc Quebecois in Quebec: 36.0 (-4.7)
Undecided/Ineligible: 13.5 (-0.5)

So more of a blink-and-you'll-miss-it bumplette for the Conservatives, who go up by slightly less than a full percentage point, compared to a more noticeable rise for the Liberals that pushes them above the aforementioned threshold -- which, at one point in the party's not-nearly-as-fuzzily-distant-as-it-seems history, considered to be 'the basement' -- for the first time in months, thus shrinking the gap between the two frontrunners to just 0.6 percent. The NDP and the Greens, meanwhile, are down, but not dramatically so -- at least, not compared to the Bloc Quebecois, which fell more than four points in Quebec, which, despite the slightly higher margin of error, is of sufficient significance to merit a re-think in the leader's office over whether the party's comparatively low-energy response to the prorogation debate might need to be revved up.

Supporters of the governing party can, however, take comfort in the fact that, as far as overall approval of the direction of said government, the thumbs-uppers once again outnumber detractors, although not by much: 44.8 to 43.4 percent, which undoubtedly comes as welcome news over at Langevin, given last week's seven point gap in favour of the unimpressed. 

On that note, on to the regional breakdowns:

British Columbia (MoE 5.36)
Conservatives: 35.7 (+2.9)
Liberals: 25.2 (+2.5)
NDP: 20.4 (-3.1)
Green: 15.3 (-3.5)
Other: 3.4 (+1.2)

So can we declare the Anti-HST Revolution officially over? Or officially dormant for the moment, at least? Because honestly, I can't think of any other reason why both the Conservatives and the Liberals would have seemingly recovered a good chunk of the ground lost to the NDP during the fracas over tax harmonization last fall, although given the way party support is distributed across the province, particularly in the interior, it's probably the Conservative climb that should worry the NDP more than any gains that the Liberals might happen to make.


Alberta (MoE 6.39)
Conservatives: 47.2 (-3.9)
Liberals: 23.9 (+5.1)
Green: 13.4  (+1.4)
NDP: 11.9 (-0.9)
Other: 3.5 (-1.6)

Whee! Alberta! Liberals up a whopping five percentage points as the Conservatives slide by nearly four! The Greens on the march as the NDP drops to fourth place! "Other" takes a hit! So many exclamation points, so little likelihood that any of these numbers have any practical implications for the Big Blue Province, given the 25 point lead that the Conservatives have managed to maintain over their nearest rivals for -- pretty much ever, or so it seems. But still, it's fun to imagine an alternate universe Alberta in which the outcome of more than one local race is in doubt. 

Saskatchewan/Manitoba (MoE 7.68)
Conservatives: 43.0 (+1.6)
NDP: 24.0 (+3.0)
Liberals: 22.2 (-4.6)
Green: 8.9 (-0.5)
Other: 1.8 (+0.4)

The denizens of Saskitoba, on the other hand, has apparently recovered from last week's midwinter madness, which saw Liberal support soar by over ten points. The NDP should be able to count on holding second place in at least one region of the country, after all.

Ontario (MoE 3.15)
Liberals: 37.7 (-0.7)
Conservatives: 33.5 (+2.1)
NDP: 13.3 (-1.9)
Green: 13.3 (+0.7)
Other: 2.3 (-0.1)

The Conservatives, on the other hand, seem to be on the rebound in Ontario, although not quite enough to overtake the Liberals and assume the lead once again. Meanwhile, not to belabour the point made earlier, in response to the BC numbers, but the fact that the NDP is now tied for third with the Greens suggests that, as far as single-issue campaigns go, the HST may not be the giant-killer that the party had hoped, although they can undoubtedly look forward to a bit of a resurgence of disgruntlement when it actually comes into effect. (Has anyone been charting the comparative trajectories of the NDP and the provincial Progressive Conservatives, who were also courting the anti-harmonization vote? It would be interesting to see how much overlap there is, as far as rises and falls in poll-revealed fortunes.)

Quebec (MoE 3.97)
Bloc Quebecois: 36.0 (-4.7)
Liberals: 25.5 (+2.5)
Conservatives: 18.1 (+0.6)
NDP: 11.2 (+2.6)
Green: 8.3 (-0.7)
Other: 1.0 (-0.1)

So, what happened here? The Bloc sinks by nearly five percentage points -- which, for them, is a fairly substantial drop -- thus boosting all three federalist parties, although the Conservatives by considerably less than those on the opposition benches. If this week's numbers were driven entirely by the response to the situation in Haiti -- and, more specifically, the government's performance on the file -- you'd expect to see a considerably higher bounce for the Conservatives, wouldn't you?

Atlantic Canada (MoE 6.81)
Liberals: 41.8 (+8.4)
Conservatives: 28.0 (-4.9)
NDP: 22.6 (+0.2)
Green: 6.1 (-2.5)
Other: 1.4 (-1.3)

And finally, Atlantic Canada, where the Liberals now hold a twelve point lead over the second-place Conservatives. I -- just don't know what to say about that. Yes, there's a seven percent margin of error, but still. Maybe that explains the prime minister's sudden hankering for a little Nova Scotian hospitality, and his appearance at an announcement in Truro later today.

Alright, over to you, armchair pollologists. How accurate were your predictions for this week's EKOS numbers? And what happens next?

Tags: blackberry jungle, EKOS of the week