EKOS of the Day - Hey, what happened to that fifteen point lead?

This is, of course, what pollologists refer to as a statistical tie, which, in this case, seems to be mostly due to what you have to think is, for Conservatives, a rather disconcertingly steady slide -- three points last week, another two and change this week -- and not, like, a sudden resurgence of love for the Liberals, although they did manage to pick up a percentage and a half overall, which has to be at least partly because of a double digit spike in Saskitoba, of all places, but we'll get to that in a sec.

 Any way you slice, dice, parse or dissect it, though, these numbers would suggest that this whole prorogation thing may not be working out quite as well as the prime minister might have hoped. Unless, of course, you heed those who are of the firm opinion that this has nothing to do with prorogation at all, since Canadians don't care about that sort of thing, in which case I'm not sure how you'd explain it. The Afghan detainee controversy? The economy? The January blues? Feel free to discuss in the comments. 

Before moving onto the regionals, I should point out that EKOS has tweaked its methodology ever so slightly, but in a manner that will likely produce a lively debate amongst truly obsessive pollwatchers: "Beginning January 14th, EKOS has changed its vote intention question to prompt for "other" in addition to the main political parties. Any changes in federal vote intention between January 7th and January 14th should be interpreted with that in mind."

So, does "other" actually mean "other" -- Marxist-Leninst/Christian Heritage/John Turmel parties, your time is now! -- or will it be used by respondents as the new code for "none of the above," becoming the polling equivalent of a protest vote? Honestly, I have no idea, although it's going to be fascinating to watch how that particular number shifts over time.

Anyway, keeping that in mind as instructed, the regional breakdowns:

British Columbia (MoE 5.21)
Conservatives: 32.8 (-1.4)
New Democrats: 23.5 (-2.4)
Liberals: 22.7 (+1.3)
Green: 18.8 (+0.3)
Other: 2.2 (-)

Not much in the way of radical shiftiness here, really -- the Liberals are still in third place, although they've narrowed the gap with the NDP, and the Greens have managed once again to defy my predictions by holding steady in the high teens.  

Alberta (MoE 6.00)
Conservatives: 51.3 (-10.4)
Liberals: 18.8 (+3.8)
New Democrats: 12.8 (+2.8)
Green: 12.0 (-1.2)
Other: 5.1 (-)

Okay, as far as these particular results go, I have to wonder whether the addition of an open-ended "other" to the approved response list may have unintended consequences, at least in certain regions. Is it possible that a good number of those who picked it had in mind a relatively new arrival to the provincial political landscape -- one with a botanically-themed name, but no plans to run candidates federally -- or not yet, at least? Or is Desmond really at risk of joining the Others -- and, if that's the case, just who are those other Others, anyway?

Saskatchewan/Manitoba (MoE 6.70)
Conservatives: 41.4 (-6.8)
Liberals: 26.8 (+14.4)
New Democrats: 21.0 (-7.3)
Green: 9.4 (-2.3)
Other: 1.4 (-)

You know, I had to check these numbers like, three times to be sure I wasn't mixing up the Liberal and NDP numbers, because I cannot for the life of me figure out why the good people of Saskitoba would suddenly be all akimbo over the urbane charms of Michael Ignatieff, and abandon the Conservatives and the New Democrats in droves out of newfound affection for the big red L. Of course, as fascinating as this prairie psychodrama may be, it's not like it would make much difference to the actual seat count, as far as I can tell, except possibly by siphoning off just enough support from the NDP to send a few more Conservatives to Ottawa. 

Ontario (MoE 2.73)
Liberals: 38.4 (+2.4)
Conservatives: 31.4 (-4.0)
New Democrats: 15.2 (+1.0)
Green: 12.6 (+1.8)
Other: 2.4 (-)

Okay, here is where I think we're definitely seeing the downside to prorogation, at least as far as the impact it has had on Conservative fortunes: Ontarians, you'll recall, have shown marked displeasure with the prime minister's decision in every prorogation-specific poll done to date, and these results would suggest that at the moment. at least, it may be a vote-changer -- or, at the very least, a vote-intention changer. Note, too, that the four percent lost by the Conservatives seems to have been divvied up fairly evenly between the other three parties, with the Liberals taking just over half and the NDP and Green splitting the difference. I have to say that I'd be a teensy bit disappointed if I were a New Democrat strategist, since this particular poll would suggest that the second choice for disgruntled Conservative leaners still seems to be the Liberals -- at least, in Ontario.   


Quebec (MoE 3.35)
Bloc Quebecois: 40.7 (+2.5)
Liberals: 23.0 (-4.5)
Conservatives: 17.5 (+2.9)
Green: 9.0 (-1.2)
New Democrats: 8.6 (-1.0)
Other: 1.1 (-)

Oh, Quebec, you contrarian scamp: somehow, you seem to be the only place where Conservative support is, at least for the moment, on the rise, jumping by nearly three percent from last week. Of course, last week was particularly bleak, but still, as far as these numbers go, it's really the only bright, sunny spot in which Conservative supporters can curl up for a mid-morning nap, so let's not spoil the moment. Meanwhile, the Liberals are back on the wrong end of the seesaw, and the Bloc Quebecois has broken the 40 percent threshold once again. 

Atlantic Canada (MoE 6.37)
Liberals: 33.4 (+5.0)
Conservatives: 32.9 (+0.3)
New Democrats: 22.4 (-4.8)
Green: 8.6 (-3.2)
Other: 2.7 (-)

Okay, perhaps my breathless predictions of thrilling three-way races across Atlantic Canada may have been a wee bit premature. If only we could see the provincial breakdowns, we'd know more -- it drives me crazy, really, that pollsters -- all of them, not just EKOS -- treat the East Coast as a monolith, because nothing could be further from the truth. I know, I know -- the margins of error would be so vast as to make it statistically meaningless, but still. New Brunswick is not Nova Scotia is not Prince Edward Island, and don't even get me started on Newfoundland and Labrador.

Alright, I've mused and meandered my way through the latest findings -- now it's your turn. Dazzle me with insight and informed observations, commenters!