EKOS of the Day - 31.6/31.1/14.6/9.0/11.0

Attentive readers may notice a minor formatting change; specifically, the order in which the parties are listed:  

Liberals: 31.6 (+0.7)
Conservatives: 31.1 (-0.4)
New Democrats: 14.6 (-0.3)
Bloc Quebecois: 9.1 (-) 
Green: 11.0 (-0.5)
Other: 2.6 (+0.5)
Undecided: 12.4 (-1.1)

Yes, congratulations, Liberals: You've managed to stay above the 30 percent watermark for a second week in a row, and by doing so, are now technically in the lead, although I wouldn't get cocky about it if I were you, what with that almost unfathomably tiny gap of just half a percent! Congratulations to the Conservatives for doing the same - no sub-30 laggards you - although somehow, I don't think that's quite as much of a morale booster for your party as it is for your nearest rival. Congratulations to the Others, for inching outside the margin of error, and to just over one percent of the previously undecided for making up your minds, at least for the moment, and finally, a big round of applause for all the other parties for showing up. (Oh, don't pout, Dippers. You're actually up in BC and Ontario, thus temporarily, at least, proving me wrong on the whole anti-HST thing.)

On that note, onto the regionals, with their markedly more quixotic respective margins of error:

British Columbia (MoE 5.45)
Conservatives: 32.4 (-3.3)
Liberals: 27.1 (+1.9)
New Democrats: 21.9 (+1.5)
Green: 14.6 (-0.7)
Other: 4.0 (+0.6)

A bit of a slide for the Conservatives here -- within the MoE, of course, but still worth noting, since up until now, they were holding relatively steady out west. Both the Liberals and the NDP have managed to creep up. although depending on how the sub-regional numbers work out, that could still mean potential seat gains for the government, since a resurrected Liberal Party could mean more serendipitous splits on the much-tilled Blue/Orange battleground of non-urban BC. Also, the Olympics! (No, I have absolutely no idea whether Vancouver's upcoming international spotlight basking will have any effect at all on the numbers, or, if it does, what that effect would possibly turn out to be, but I figured I should throw that in, just like a real pollster-pundit type.)

Alberta (MoE 6.68)
Conservatives: 50.2 (+3.0)
Liberals: 18.6 (-5.3)
Green: 15.4 (+2.0)
New Democrats: 9.4 (-2.5)
Other: 6.4 (+2.9)

Okay, starting now, we're going to take a different approach to analysing the results for this particular province; instead of using this space to go on and on at length about how irrelevant the shifts in Albertan opinion are, or at least will be until that day comes when the Conservatives don't have a thirty point lead on their nearest rival, let's assign deep significance to the symbolic, but largely meaningless 50 percent threshold and use that as a barometer of the political mood in Alberta. In which case, this is a good week for Stephen Harper -- the folks back home in Calgary are clearly unfussed by the prorogation-related grumbliness with which large parts of the rest of the country has apparently been stricken. Also, the Greens are in third place! Could a quick switch from Saanich Gulf Islands to a candidateless Edmonton-ish riding be in Elizabeth May's future? Because I could totally see her doing that.

Saskatchewan/Manitoba (MoE 7.15)
Conservatives: 44.4 (+1.4)
Liberals: 23.9 (+1.7)
New Democrats: 19.9 (-4.1)
Green: 8.8 (-0.1)
Other: 3.0 (+1.2)

Ahh, Saskitoba. You're a mercurial lot, aren't you? Here, by the way, is where, my semi-scientific reckoning, the NDP put itself on the minus side of the ledger this week, and unlike, say, Alberta, those four points could actually matter in a less than electorally optimal way if the trend continues. The Liberals, meanwhile, are back in second place, and the Conservatives are up as well.

Ontario (MoE 2.89)
Liberals: 39.2 (+1.5)
Conservatives: 31.6 (-1.9)
New Democrats: 14.8 (+1.5)
Green: 12.4 (-0.9)
Other: 1.9 (-0.4)

Yeah, this -- which probably shouldn't be viewed in one-poll vacuum, but taken in context of the steady shift in support for the two leading parties that we've seen in Ontario since, well, you know  -- tells me that the Conservatives may officially have A Problem -- oh, relax, I said may -- if the seeming revival of that old-time Liberal love has spread beyond downtown Toronto.

Quebec (MoE 3.60)
Bloc Quebecois: 37.0 (+1.0)
Liberals: 29.1 (+3.6)
Conservatives: 16.2 (-1.9)
New Democrats: 9.3 (-1.9)
Green: 7.0 (-1.3)
Other: 1.4 (+0.4)

A bit of a jump for the Liberals here, too, although again, it probably isn't enough to keep Gilles Duceppe up at night unless it extends beyond the outskirts of Montreal, although to be fair, didn't we - and I'm using the royal we out of courtesy - declare, on more than one occasion, that there were no more Liberal strongholds in Quebec, and that Ignatieff -- like the prime minister -- was all but out of the race, as far as winning the hearts and minds of Quebeckers? Or did I imagine that? 

Atlantic Canada (MoE 6.81)
Conservatives: 37.1 (+9.1)
Liberals: 33.8 (-8.0)
New Democrats: 21.1 (-1.5)
Green: 6.6 (+0.5)
Other: 1.3 (-0.1)

And finally, Atlantic Canada makes a welcome return to the realm of plausibility after last week's wacky hijinx, in which the Liberals somehow wound up in the low forties. Seriously, that was just bizarre, and I even said as much at the time. I was trying to explain to someone the other day how, even with dauntingly large margins of error, after a few months of meticulously tracking regional results, you sort of develop a sense of what the numbers should be, roughly speaking, and can recognize an outlier when it pops up. These results? Pretty close to what I would have guessed, although I wouldn't be surprised to see that gap start to close as well, particularly if the NDP doesn't pull up its Dexter-logo-emblazoned socks and get back into the game.

Oh, and finally, on right or wrong direction of government, after a brief rally amongst the thumbs-uppers last week, the forces of 'no, thanks' have retaken the lead, with 47.0 percent of respondents concluding, that "all things considered," it's going the wrong way, and just 42.5 percent determinedly waving the Right Way banner -- and ten percent choosing to skip the question. But chins up, Giornocolytes: Conservative supporters are even more enthusiastic about your navigational prowess than last week. That's something, right?

Over to you, commenters.