EKOS Every Other Weekly: Between the three of them, they're up nearly a full percentage point!

There are, in fact, a few interesting nuggets to be found in the regional breakdowns -- and the bonus question, which is one of those 'right/wrong direction' queries - but let's start by acknowledging the existence of the national numbers, keeping in mind, as always, the 1.82 margin of error:

Conservatives: 35.9 (+0.3)
Liberals: 26.7 (+0.2)
NDP: 17.0 (+0.3)
Green: 11.2 (-0.1)
Bloc Quebecois (in Quebec): 36.8 (-3.0)
Undecided: 14.5 (-0.1.)

Topline trends sufficiently processed and appreciated? Good. Onto the all important regional breakdowns:

British Columbia (MoE 5.46)
Conservatives: 35.0 (-0.1)
NDP: 28.8 (+2.4)
Liberals: 23.6 (-2.2)
Green: 12.6 (-0.5)

Yes, yes, the margin of error is such that it would be foolish to launch into an orgy of wild extrapolation over the impact of that final HST showdown, but it does appear that something, at least, has given the NDP a modest boost in BC, although I suspect not nearly as much as Jack Layton and Friends were hoping to see, considering how much time and effort the party put into slowing its inexorable progress through the House. Still, the Dips have now been comfortably ahead of the Liberals for weeks, and are within entirely respectable distance of the Conservatives, who are, of course, their main rivals in much of the province.

Alberta (MoE 5.61)
Conservatives: 60.7 (+0.9)
Green: 15.1 (+1.8)
Liberals: 13.9 (-6.1)
NDP: 10.4 (+1.5)

Saskatchewan/Manitoba (MoE 6.98)
Conservatives: 53.1 (+2.9)
NDP: 20.5 (-1.2)
Liberals: 17.6 (-2.8)
Green: 8.8 (+0.9)

Hey, look! After a dizzying six-points-in-one-week plunge for the Liberals, the Greens are now in second place in Alberta! Of course, it's not easy to get excited about the rollercoaster ride that is Alberta federal polling numbers when the combined support for all other parties is still twenty points behind the Conservatives, but still. One has to try, right? Meanwhile, the Saskitoba results somehow manage to be even less of a conversation starter, although it's amazing how the Liberal decline seems to follow the path of its leader's most recent tour. I'm sure that's just a coincidence.


Ontario (MoE 3.01)
Conservatives: 39.0 (+0.1)
Liberals: 33.5 (+2.4)
NDP: 14.8 (-2.4)
Green: 12.7 (-)

Meanwhile, the NDP's noble but futile last stand against the HST doesn't seem to done much for the party in Ontario, particularly if that 2.4 percent represents a significant chunk of the NDP/Liberal switcher contingent. Then again, unless the Liberals are able to peel off some of that Conservative support, this may be as high as they're able to go in Ontario, since I'm not sure how much more they can squeeze out of the Dips. (It's times like this, incidentally, when I really wish that we could get a more detailed breakdown - at least the rural versus urban numbers - since numbers like these could translate into any number of wildly different seat compositions.)

Quebec (MoE 3.40)
Bloc Quebecois: 36.8 (-3.0)
Conservatives: 17.1 (+0.2)
Liberals: 24.6 (+1.9)
NDP: 12.8 (+2.7)
Green: 8.7 (-1.7)

Ahh, Quebec. Inscrutable as always. Why are the federalist parties - with the exception of the Greens -- up? Why is the Bloc Quebecois down?

Atlantic Canada (MoE 7.35)
Conservatives: 35.2 (-1.7)
Liberals: 31.2 (-0.2)
NDP: 26.9 (+1.7)
Green: 6.7 (+0.1)

You know, if these numbers hold up, the next election may see an actual three-way race across much of the East Coast -- that is, if evenly distributed. Wouldn't that be interesting?

Finally, as far as the bonus question -- "All things considered, would you say the Government of Canada is moving in the right direction or the wrong direction?" -- it seems that Right is still winning out over Wrong, although really, not by much -- 44.5 to 43.9 is not exactly what I'd call a sweeping endorsement. It does suggest, however, that the government has yet to recover from the rather precipitous drop that it experienced following Richard Colvin's committee appearance.