=THIS POST WILL BE UPDATED - HIT THE JUMP AND SCROLL DOWN FOR THE LATEST

Good evening, electoral sports fans! Are we ready for some preliminary results? What's that? We're more than ready by this point, after having been forced to wait around for the polls to close in British Columbia? Well, it's going to be a few minutes yet, since the results won't start coming in for a few minutes, but rumour has it the Canadian Press is reporting that the Conservatives had a surprisingly strong showing in Cumberland Colchester, with Scott Armstrong romping to an easy victory over his nearest challenger, the NDP's Mark Austin. 

UPDATE: As of 9:00 p.m., Elections Canada has reportedly ordered Sun Media to take down the CP story. 

Anyway, as I type this, the polls have just closed in Quebec; as yet, there are no reports of early results filtering out from behind the Elections Canada-imposed firewall, which means that we'll just have to wait until the last polls close at 10pm. There were, however, some rather nasty-sounding allegations of dirty tricks floating around earlier in the day -- from the Bloc Quebecois against the Conservatives in Riviere du loup, as recounted by Colleague Rosie, and unofficially, but no less vehemently, from the NDP against the Bloc Quebecois in Hochelaga.  

So -- some off the cuff analysis while waiting for the darkness to rise: I can't help but see the Cumberland Colchester Musquodoboit Valley results as a disappointing turn of events for the NDP. It's not that they were widely expected to win, but if the preliminary returns hold out, it wasn't even close. As for the Conservatives -- as I said earlier, they may have been feigning pessimism as far as the Nova Scotia race, but really. if they hadn't managed to take back a seat that, up until Bill Casey's declaration of Independence had been a Conservative stronghold for years, it would have been a less than auspicious omen as far as the party's future electoral fortunes in Atlantic Canada. That said, the fact that they won it as handily as they did has to be cause for celebration, particularly in Red Tory circles. 

So, any guesses on what will happen in the two Quebec ridings? Me, I'm going to stick with Wells' First Rule of Politics, which - for those of you not yet familiar with it - goes as follows: "For any given situation, Canadian politics will tend toward the least exciting possible outcome." Which means that I am bravely predicting that both seats will remain in the tender but unyielding grip of the Bloc Quebecois, but with surprisingly feisty second place showings by the Conservatives in Riviere-du-loup, and the NDP in Hochelaga. 

I should probably start adding timestamps to my updates, huh? After all, in just four minutes, this won't just be a one-way conversation between me and Google Chrome. 

Sigh. Why do I always get my hopes up that the networks will cover by-election results live? With all those awesome maps and charts and graphs and rolling seat counts? It only leads to crushing disappointment every time. 

Anyway, according to the very, very earliest possible reports from Quebec, the Tories and the Bloc Quebecois are neck and neck in MIKR, while over in Hochelaga, the BQ is practically in a different solar system from its nearest contender -- which is, for the record, the NDP. 

Ooh -- the Conservatives are now ahead in Riviere-du-loup -- by just a handful of votes, but still. 

And suddenly, I'm realizing how very, very tricky it is to liveblog realtime results while feverishly clicking refresh in another window and keeping an eye on twitter. Also, where are the results from New Westminster Coquitlam? That box hasn't updated once since the official returns site went live. 

And there we go with the NWC results -- just one poll in, and the NDP is twenty votes up. Did I tell you I was watching the CPAC by-election special earlier -- just to get in the mood, you know? -- and the Green candidate was the only one who actually defended the HST? It was kind of adorable. Actually, I wouldn't be surprised if the Greens had a decent showing in that riding -- they've been doing surprisingly well in the polls lately. Note: By "decent," I mean "in the double digits". I haven't gone completely round the twist during the blackout. 

Well, it looks like Wells Rule may have failed me, and the Tories could eke out a victory in Riviere-du-loup after all, although given the furious accusations from the Bloc Quebecois candidate over alleged identity theft by a rogue demon dialer, it's possible that this may not be the last we hear about this. 

The first official spin of the night, courtesy of the NDP's Brad Lavigne via Colleague Rosie: "New Dems feeling great - and we haven't even got anything in from BC." Really, it's not like anyone will ever say, "Yeah, that was a total disaster. I don't know what we were thinking." 

WHY IS NOBODY COVERING THIS LIVE? I want to see candidate headquarters, and hear angry/ecstatic concession/victory speeches. 

The dependably elliptic Rocco Rossi offers the following koan-like spin: "Train pulls into station. Death toll zero. Predictable results except maybe #MKR w/ pro-Kyoto PC that will have trouble fitting in." 

Possible new rule: All afterhours rapid response should be in the form of a haiku. Agreed? 

Alright, I'm calling New Westminster Coquitlam for the NDP -- and if the trend holds up til the end, it will be a roust, really, considering how close the Conservatives came last time. Is that anti-HST rabblerousing, or just an anti-government growl from the electorate? 

More from the NDP's Brad Lavigne, again courtesy of someone else -- this time, David Akin -- because apparently I'm not on the rapid response listserv for any party, not that I'm bitter: "Tonight our vote went up in every region and we start the next federal election from a position of strength." 

Okay, so the race is tightening up a wee bit in New Westminster, but the New Democrats still have a lead of somewhere around 800 votes (math is hard, let's go approximating!), which has been fairly consistent through the last few polls. Meanwhile, over in Riviere du loup, it's looking like the Bloc Quebecois are going to end the evening down by one  -- which will leave a mark, although losing Hochelaga definitely would have been worse. 

Did I mention the Liberals yet tonight? No? Well, let's just say that if these by-elections were a test of Michael Ignatieff's leadership, it would be a dark night of the soul over at Stornoway tonight. 

My apologies for the slow rate of updates. In the meantime, you might want to check out the electoral history for MIKR -- that's the Quebec riding currently being transferred from Bloc to Conservative custody. The Conservatives have been gaining support over the last three elections -- they went up in 2008, even -- so I guess in retrospect, this really shouldn't be that much of a surprise. 

Okay, unless there's a heretofore unknown pocket of fervent and enthusiastically out-turning Bloc supporters lurking somewhere in the thirteen polls still to report, I think it's safe to call MIKR for the Conservatives -- which is a genuine, corollary-free victory for the government, and over which they are permitted to be entirely smug, especially to those of us who may have scoffed at their prospects in Quebec. 

Meanwhile, Hochelaga stays resolutely Bloquiste, although the NDP gets a morale boost by improving its share of the vote, and taking over second place from the Liberals. Out west, New Westminster Coquitlam remains orange -- even orange-r, even, when you consider how close the Conservatives came to taking it last October.

And somewhere in Ottawa -- or possibly Toronto -- Peter Donolo sits alone at his desk, and thinks to himself, "They're expecting me to fix all this? They do realize I'm not actually magic, right?" 

Alright, I hate to leave you all while there are a still a few votes left to be counted, but as you may or may not have noticed earlier, I've got a date -- actually, it's more like speed dating -- with CBC stations across the country tomorrow morning, starting at 6am, which means I'm going to have to leave you to your own devices, and hope that there's not a sudden upset. Congratulations to all candidates, elected and otherwise, for surviving the democratic process -- and, of course, to the voters who trekked to the polls, and finally, to all of you who followed along, here and on twitter, who made tonight so darned much fun. Merry Byelection Day to all, and to all a good night.