The scorecard: Monday byelections

For those of you wanting to play at home Monday night - here's what you need to know about the four byelections:

 

 

Results from the 2008 General Election:

 

Bill Casey   Independent    69.0%
Karen Olsson   New Democratic Party   12.3%
Joel E. Bernard   Conservative Party of Canada   8.8%
Tracy Parsons   Liberal Party of Canada   8.5%
(Source: Elections Canada)

 

What to watch: When this riding's former MP, Bill Casey, split from the Conservatives to run as an independent, he brought his share of the vote from 52% to 69%. Will continued voter anger towards the Conservatives help another party take this riding?

 

 

Results from the 2008 General Election:

 

Réal Ménard   Bloc Québécois   49.7%
Diane Dicaire    Liberal Party of Canada  20.7%
Jean-Claude Rocheleau  New Democratic Party   14.5%
Luc Labbé   Conservative Party of Canada  9.2%
(Source: Elections Canada)

 

What to watch: The is a Bloc stronghold and it would be a huge upset if it went any other way. However, where the other parties place will be key. Are the Liberals still the federalist alternative on the Island of Montreal? Is the NDP making any inroads now that they have an MP in the province?

 

 

Results from the 2008 General Election:

 

Paul Crête   Bloc Québécois   46.0%
Denis Laflamme  Conservative Party of Canada  30.6%
Jean Bouchard    Liberal Party of Canada  15.4%
Gaston Hervieux  New Democratic Party  5.5%
(Source: Elections Canada)

 

What to watch:This riding is just to the East of the Conservative's Quebec City toe-hold in the province. This also marks the fifth time voters in the riding have gone to the polls in a little more than a year. That means voter fatigue, which lends itself to low voter turn out -- and when only a few people cast ballots, funny things can happen.

 

 

Results from the 2008 General Election:

 

Dawn Black    New Democratic Party    41.8%
Yonah Martin   Conservative Party of Canada  38.8%
Michelle Hassen  Liberal Party of Canada   11.3%

 

What to watch: This has been a relatively tight three-way race for a long while. The NDP has tried hard to make this one a referendum of sorts about the HST. Although technically a provincial issue, the federal government is pushing it, so could face voter backlash.

 

Biggest potential winner: Conservatives.
Going up the three seats they could potentially win would be a huge boost for Prime Minister Stephen Harper. Would give Conservatives momentum, put an end speculation the party is dead in Quebec (outside of Montreal), and bring the Conservatives to four seats shy of an absolute majority*.

On the other hand, if the Conservatives fail to win back the long-time Conservative riding in Nova Scotia, it could once again point to trouble for the party in the Atlantic provnices..

 

Biggest potential loser: Liberals.
The party might place third in all four by-elections. To be fair, the Liberals have only ever won the Nova Scotia riding once (1993), haven't won either Quebec riding since 1980, and have never held the BC riding. Still, a 'government in waiting' needs to be at least the second choice of voters.

That also means when it comes to the Liberals' pain in these ridings, it will likely be the NDP's gain.

On the other hand, if the Liberals were able to at least come close one or more of these races, pundits MIGHT stop shovelling dirt onto Michael Ignatieff's grave for a little while.
 
*(Before the comments start that I can't do math, the Speaker is a Liberal MP and can only vote in the case of a tie, which there wouldn't be if the vote is 154 to 153.)