(Adrian Wyld/Canadian Press)

Everybody knows it hasn't been the rosiest time for federal Liberals. A strident plan to bring down the Conservative government last fall has somehow mellowed, or melted, into a lament from leader Michael Ignatieff.

In Winnipeg this week, he spoke to supporters a chastened man: "We've had a tough time, no other way to put it. It's been a tough couple of months and we got knocked around pretty good," he said. "I take responsibility for what we are going through."

But how has the ongoing Liberal disarray affected the NDP -- the party which is often, and mistakenly, seen as a bit player in Parliament? The federal NDP has been on a roll over the past several elections, with leader Jack Layton bringing them progressively more seats to a high of 37 in 2008.

Even so, the NDP has yet to break the seat count record of 43, set by former Leader Ed Broadbent twenty years earlier. With the Liberals struggling in the polls, NDP supporters may very well be asking themselves: if not now, then when?

It's a question very much on the mind of Françoise Boivin. She was once the Liberal MP for the Quebec riding of Gatineau, but switched to the NDP after a falling out with party leadership.

As the NDP candidate, she placed second in the same riding in 2008, behind the Bloc. Her riding is now under the close watch of New Democrat strategists who see it as the next hope for a stronger toehold in Quebec. She stresses the importance of adding to the NDP's win in the Montreal riding of Outremont.

"We cannot just keep saying to our membership 'we have a seat.' They work so hard, it's important to get a second one."

Recent byelection results are the latest reason for NDP optimism. They won one B.C. riding and placed ahead of the Liberals in two of the three other races.

(CORRECTION: The Liberals placed ahead of the NDP in Montmagny - L'Islet - Kamouraska - Rivière-du-Loup, and did not finish behind the New Democrats in all four of this month's byelections, as initially reported in this blog entry.)

The question is: how far can the NDP go, given the ongoing troubles within the natural governing party?

Pretty far, according to former Liberal party president and CP24 television host, Stephen LeDrew.

"If the NDP come forth as a reasonable party with a platform that resonates, I think they could overcome their traditional shackles and go above what they did with (Ed) Broadbent," he says. "There's no question, given the current state of disarray with the Liberals, and the fact that the Liberals have yet to explain why Canadians should vote for the Liberals, that the NDP can see the vacuum in there and if they fill it the right way I think they'll be rewarded."

Still, byelections notwithstanding, national polls show the NDP, the Conservatives and the Liberals stuck in the same groove they found themselves in at the last election. NDP strategists are eager to see that budge. Brad Lavigne is the party's national director and its former director of commuinications.

"The opportunity that we have is to go to traditional Liberal voters and Progressive Conservative voters and say, politics is changing in this country. The things that you loved about your party for years, progressive values, can now be found in a bigger, modern New Democratic Party under Jack Layton's leadership."

The NDP has some distinct advantages. The current team has fought the last four campaigns with the present leader. The Liberals don't have that coherence to draw upon. The NDP also has shown itself adept at targeting winnable ridings, and will now look to do this in

Nova Scotia, Quebec, Ontario's manufacturing belt, and rural B.C.

Still, they have several obstacles to overcome, particularly in the west, according to Janice MacKinnon, a historian and former NDP finance minister in Saskatchewan.

"They need to get a presence outside downtown Vancouver and a few other pockets and re-establish some credibility in those seats,"

MacKinnon says. "And it's going to be hard. On regional issues Conservatives have a lot of support from people who would otherwise vote NDP, which seems surprising but it's true."

The best example, says MacKinnon, is the NDP's failure to connect with voters in Saskatchewan on issues as basic as the long gun registry. MacKinnon also argues the party needs a more credible policy platform .

"They've done a good job politically in opposing certain taxes," she notes. "They've opposed the harmonized sales tax and the carbon tax. But boy, it's hard to come up with an easy alternative for a left of center party. And they're going to have to do that, eventually, to be credible."

MacKinnon adds that last year's decision to form a coalition with the Liberals was a deeply unpopular move with NDP supporters, particularly in the west.

Still, for every bad decision there's a good one, according to party insiders.

For example, Jack Layton's decision to prop up the government this fall, perhaps surprisingly, didn't hurt them in the polls -- and may have helped.

Ian Capstick is an Ottawa consultant and former press secretary to Jack Layton. He argues Layton's success will continue to depend on the party's electoral performance. He says nobody yet is questioning his leadership.

"As soon as New Democrats start to become less relevant, start losing votes, then absolutely those questions will be asked," he says. "But at this very moment, Jack Layton has taken the aspirations of a political party and turned them into the reality of a political machine."

Still, Capstick acknowledges the big challenge to the NDP will be to increase the efficiency of the vote, partly by running much more tailored regional campaigns.

Brad Lavigne clearly has his eye on Quebec as the region where the party can make the most gains.

"Our goal is to build on the momentum we have currently in Quebec, so we can move that tipping point and realize a significant increase in seats," he says. "Just as we've realized a significant increase in votes."

Of course, the Liberals hold that it won't happen -- they argue they're going to climb back and mount a strong defence.

Steven MacKinnon is the Liberal candidate in Gatineau and the party's former national director.

He says disgruntled voters typically park their support with the party who can help defeat the government. But he acknowledges right now they're not parking with the Liberals.

"But as we get closer to an opportunity as to mounting a credible bid to replace the government, then I think people will consolidate under the Liberal banner."

MacKinnon is quietly confident the Liberals will win back not only Gatineau, but the NDP beachhead in Montreal's Outremont riding.

But despite this Liberal optimism, party insiders admit they've got work to do. They need to build a team that can work together and present a more focused and coherent message to Canadians. And until they do, they can't take the NDP's third-national-party status for granted.

LISTEN to Louise Elliott's feature for The House.