Inside Politics

EKOS Weekly - You can open your eyes now, Liberals ...

by Kady O'Malley Posted: November 5, 2009 5:52 AM Last Updated: November 5, 2009 6:37 AM
... for the first time in ages, you haven't gone down! Okay, so you haven't gone up, either -- you're exactly where you were last week, right down to the percentage point -- but considering your trajectory since summer ended, total stasis is probably the best you could have hoped for from this week's results. Oh, and as for you Conservatives, I can hear you muttering about margin of error from here, but I don't seem to recall you bringing that up a whole lot during your slow but inexorable climb from the mid-30s to your current perch, so that one point drop still counts. You can blame it on the curse of the M word, I guess, but I still think that's just silly.  

Anyway, without further ado, the top line numbers:  

Conservatives: 37.4 (-1)
Liberals: 26.8 (-)
NDP: 16.3 ((-0.4)
Green: 10.0 (+0.1)
Bloc Quebecois (in Quebec)(that's obvious, right?): 37.6 (+4.1)
Undecided: 16.0 (-0.4)

And the regional breakdowns, followed by a bonus round of groggy stream of consciousness analysis: 

British Columbia (MoE 5.83)
Conservatives: 41.8 (+5.0)
Liberals: 20.1 (-4.9)
NDP: 25.3 (-3.6)
Green: 12.8 (+3.5)

Alberta (MoE 6.25)
Conservatives: 62.8 (-0.1)
Liberals: 17.5 (+4.4)
NDP: 9.8 (-3.4)
Green: 9.9 (-0.9)

Saskatchewan/Manitoba (MoE 7.17)
Conservatives: 49.3 (-2.6)
Liberals: 19.9 (-4.5)
NDP: 21.2 (+2.7)
Green: 9.6 (+4.6)

Ontario (MoE 2.98)
Conservatives: 39.6 (-1.8)
Liberals: 33.6 (+2.4)
NDP: 15.8 (+0.3)
Green: 11.0 (-1.0)

Quebec (MoE 3.49)
Bloc Quebecois:  37.6 (+4.1)
Conservatives: 19.6 (-2.9)
Liberals: 24.3 (+0.5)
NDP: 11.0 (-0.6)
Green: 7.6 (-1.0)

Atlantic Canada (MoE 7.11)
Conservatives: 33.4 (+1.1)
Liberals: 32.9 (-5.1)
NDP: 24.8 (+2.7)
Green: 8.8 (+1.3)

British Columbia is interesting, isn't it? For a few weeks there, it looked like the Conservatives were on the decline, most likely because of the whole anti-HST kerfuffleage -- which would also explain how the NDP have been able to burrow into that second-place spot -- but picking up five points in a week -- yes, yes, I know it's within the margin of error, but just go with me here for a sec -- suggests that something else is going on here. One poll does not a pattern make, but if I had to guess, I'd say that the prime minister's pre-Olympic visit was a darn good call by the strategic scheduling office over at PMO. Of course, that doesn't explain why the Greens appear to be flourishing out west -- not just in BC, but Saskitoba as well, but nothing ever satisfactorily explains the Greens, does it? 

Meanwhile, in central Canada, the Liberals are up -- not by much, but still -- in Ontario and Quebec, and the Tories are down -- again, not significantly, but enough that they'll likely be anxiously awaiting the next batch of numbers to reassure themselves that this is a blip, not a trend. On the plus side -- which is almost, but not quite, a pun -- out East, they've managed to leapfrog the Liberals to regain first place, although that's mostly because of a sizeable slump for the Grits, and -- yup, there's that margin of error muttering again. 

All in all, I'd say that none of the parties have any particular reason to print out and frame a copy of this particular poll. Well, except the Bloc Quebecois, which picked up an entirely MoE-respectable four points, but it's so much easier for them, really, isn't it? 

Over to you, commenters! 

Tags: blackberry jungle, EKOS of the week