Byelection Madness: They spin us right round, baby, right round ...

Colleague Hall has rather ably summed up the pre-byelection spin and counterspin coming from the Conservative and Liberal camps over whether or not this is, in fact, a critical test for the Liberals -- which, not surprisingly, turns out to be a "Yea" and a "Heck, nay," respectively --  it only seems fair to give equal time to the NDP. Particularly since this time around, they actually have a seat to lose -- New Westminster-Coquitlam -- as well as moderate to high hopes of posting a strong second place finish in both Hochelaga and Cumberland-Colchester-Musquodoboit Valley. 

Not that you'll find many Dippers admitting that, of course -- not in public, that is -- but that hasn't stopped a steady stream of Team Orange volunteers from making day -- and multiple day -- trips to Montreal in recent weeks. Although Hochelaga will almost certainly remain in Bloc Quebecois hands, the NDP are hoping to see their share of the vote go up -- ideally, surpassing the Liberals -- which will bolster their claim to be the new federalist alternative for Montreal. That's why Jack Layton was so chuffed when a last-minute Bloc Quebecois ad campaign took aim directly at the NDP for its stance on the gun registry. 

Meanwhile, in Nova Scotia, there's an outside chance that the NDP will be able to to steal the seat back from the Conservatives -- oh, and incidentally, make no mistake that a loss here for the Tories is, indeed, a real loss, despite all that stuff they've been saying about not expecting to win anything in this round. The Dexter magic managed to capture one of two previously true blue Tory seats in the recent provincial by-elections, which is why some local New Democrats are betting that they'll be able to give Conservative Scott Armstrong an entirely respectable run for his money. 

Anyway, just so you can parse the talking points when the numbers finally start to come in, here's a quick summary: 

Officially - Fully anticipate being shut out completely in all four ridings, and not even ready to call second place in Cumberland-Colchester-Musquodoboit Valley or Montmagny-L'Islet-Kamouraska-Riviere-du-Loup

Unofficially - Bill Casey's riding is effectively theirs to lose, and they don't really expect to do so, and they're cautiously -- very cautiously -- optimistic about Riviere-du-loup

Officially - Not taking any riding for granted, but reasonably confident that they'll do better than their 2008 results in all but one. 

Unofficially - Losing New Westminster-Coquitlam to the Conservatives would be unfortunate, but not catastrophic. Falling behind the Liberals in Hochelaga would be a minor blow to morale in Quebec, and would augur ill as far as the likelihood of Thomas Mulcair holding the party's lone Quebec seat. 

Officially - Not remotely worried, and fully expect to keep both Quebec seats. 

Unofficially - Definitely a bit worried about Riviere-du-loup, and hoping to stave off any sloughing of left-leaning voters to the NDP in Hochelaga. 

Officially - Not a contender in any of the four ridings

Unofficially - Seriously, not a contender in any of the four ridings -- and as long as they pull out a bigger share of the vote in Quebec than they did last time around under Dion, they'll consider it a disaster averted.