Yes, yes, we'll get to the horse race momentarily.(Can you even still call it a horse race when one of the horses has wandered off the track entirely, and is now standing by the rail and staring aimlessly into the distance?). But first, we should spend just a moment or two marveling over this week's bonus question, which asks whether any or all of the current crop of federal party leaders should be replaced "as soon as possible."
It's not even all that surprising that Michael Ignatieff would win that particular poll handily, with only 31 percent of respondents saying he should stick around, compared to 46 percent who ready to volunteer to help him pack. But only by going through the data tables, which break down the result by voter intention, can one become truly boggled by the revelation that not even Liberal supporters are all that keen on the guy: Only 55 percent would keep him on as leader -- 26 percent would ditch him for the nearest available alternative in a flash. That's 26 percent of LIBERAL-LEANING VOTERS. Seriously, I've said it once, and I'm sure I'll say it again: Yikes.
Also, it's probably worth noting that Jack Layton is still the most loved -- or, more accurately, least disliked -- leader, although you always have to wonder what supporters of other parties are thinking when they answer those sorts of questions. Are they thinking, man, I really hope we get to run against him next time around? Or do they put themselves in the other partisan's shoes? I know, I know -- never get philosophical when reading polls -- that way, madness lies.
Anyway, for your statistics-based entertainment, here are the national numbers, followed by my usual attempt at analysis:
Conservatives: 38.4
Liberals: 26.8
NDP: 16.7
Green: 9.9
Bloc Quebecois (Quebec):33.5
And the regionals:
British Columbia
Conservatives: 36.8
Liberals: 25.0
NDP: 28.9
Green: 9.3
Alberta
Conservatives: 62.9
Liberals: 13.1
NDP: 13.2
Green: 10.8
Saskatchewan/Manitoba
Conservatives: 51.9
Liberals: 24.6
NDP: 18.5
Green: 5.0
Ontario
Conservatives: 41.4
Liberals: 31.2
NDP: 15.5
Green: 12.0
Quebec
Bloc Quebecois: 33.5
Conservatives: 22.5
Liberals: 23.8
NDP: 11.6
Green: 8.6
Atlantic Canada
Conservatives: 32.3
Liberals: 38.0
NDP: 22.1
Green: 7/5
(Note: Those who have read my past poll analysis will probably be wondering why I didn't include the +/- this time around -- I wasn't able to crunch the numbers this morning, but I'll update the post to include the changes later this morning. Promise.)
So, let's see: the Conservatives are ahead everywhere, which is, frankly, getting kind of dull, as far as writing about the numbers -- what more is there to say, really? Man, they're doing well! Just like celebrity-watching, it only starts to get interesting when there's a trainwreck, which is why one has to be thankful for the Liberals, although even they've managed to inch up a little, although it's well within the margin of error.
More intriguing is the creeping support for the NDP, particularly in British Columbia and Quebec; the former can likely be at least partially attributed to the zeal with which the Dips have thrown themselves into the anti-HST campaign, but what's the deal with Quebec? Where, incidentally, the Tories seem to have settled in the very low 20s, which is better than what they were probably expecting; the neighbouring Liberals, however, will likely be still more dispirited by their failure to pull out of the post-Coderre debacle tailspin.
Oh, and just a note to any C/conservative readers out there who seethe over every mention of the m word: It's all well and good to be humble and self-effacing, but y'all really have to get over that hangup. Any other party would be thrilled to be referred to being on the verge of a majority. See, I said it. Majority. MAJORITY! Embrace the M! Make it your own! I mean, isn't that what you're asking the voting public to do?
Alright, that's my take: What thinkest thou, commenters?
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April (37)
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March (69)
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February (70)
- Power & Politics' Ballot Box question
- Orders of the Day - If those caucus room walls could talk ...
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- Power & Politics' Ballot Box question
- Vikileaks Watch: Pack your bags, Adam Carroll, you're going to (the wrong) committee!
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- UPDATED - Vikileaks30 Watch: (Now former) Liberal staffer revealed as creator of formerly anonymous twitter account
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January (70)
- Power & Politics' Ballot Box question
- UPDATED - Fate of NDP motion to investigate creeping in camera-itis at committee unknown
- Committee Liveblog: Former Liberal MP turned Lobbyist Joe Jordan talks Lobbying Act at Ethics
- UPDATED - Orders of the Day: Second day back and it feels like they never left.
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