The CBC Pollcast, hosted by CBC poll analyst Éric Grenier, explores the world of electoral politics, political polls and the trends they reveal.


The New Democrats might know the name of their party's new leader on Sunday when the results of the first round of voting are announced. But if no candidate secures a majority of ballots cast, another round of voting begins.

It could be another week or two before the campaign comes to a close and the new leader is chosen.

So, how likely is it that this leadership race, which began more than a year ago, will be over this weekend?

Who the next leader will be is not the only question that could be answered on Sunday. If there is no outright winner, which of the four candidates in the running — Ontario MP Charlie Angus, Manitoba MP Niki Ashton, Quebec MP Guy Caron and Ontario MPP Jagmeet Singh — will be the first to be eliminated?

Will Singh, who has raised more money in less time than his three rivals, finish on top? If so, what number will he need to have a good shot of winning in the second or third round? And what number will his opponents — particularly Angus, widely seen as the No. 2 in the race — need to put up to have their own shot at victory?

To preview Sunday's results, Pollcast host Éric Grenier is joined by Karl Bélanger, who has worked under three federal NDP leaders and is now president of the Douglas-Coldwell Foundation.

Listen to the full discussion above — or subscribe to the CBC Pollcast and listen to past episodes.

Follow Éric Grenier and Karl Bélanger on Twitter.