Tory majority looks 'elusive': EKOS

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A Conservative majority is "looking more elusive" and the party appears headed toward a diminished minority, according to a new EKOS poll.

A new survey by the polling company indicates the Conservatives have the support of 37 per cent of voters, with the Liberals trailing at 27.8 per cent. The poll suggests the New Democratic Party has 16.1 per cent support, the Green Party 9.3 per cent and the Bloc Québécois 6.9 per cent.

Voters were asked to indicate which party they would vote for if an election were held the day after they were surveyed.

"We need to look no further than the burgeoning concern with 'ethics and accountability' to understand why this issue is becoming a central focus and why the Conservatives appear to be backing up from majority to what would now be a diminished minority, which, according to the Conservative Party's own election gambit, would produce a change of government," the EKOS analysis said.

"In terms of the prospects of a majority it seems that is looking more elusive. Not only has the race narrowed somewhat but the Conservatives have fallen back badly on second choice, which the NDP lead on and the Liberals have risen as a second choice."

The party standings in the survey are not markedly different from a survey held just before the election call in March.

The Conservatives gained just under two percentage points, while the Liberal Party dropped less than one percentage point. The NDP gained about two percentage points and the Green Party dropped just over one percentage point. The Bloc Québécois showed the greatest shift, dropping about three percentage points.

The survey also indicates the Conservatives have a clear advantage when it comes to voter commitment.

"Their supporters are by far the most loyal from the last election, the most likely to have no other choice, the most like to be certain to vote, the least likely to change their mind and the most enthusiastic about their choice," the EKOS analysis said.

"It may, however, be that what makes the Conservatives so strong also makes them so limited in their ability to grow. … The final result is extremely uncertain at this point but the majority outcome is looking increasingly unlikely."

The survey of 1,171 Canadians was conducted between April 4 and 5 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.9 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

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