50-50 Fact-checking the leaders' debate

Debate's on and we're off to our fact-checking pile of facts and figures.

First up tonight was Conservative Leader Stephen Harper answering a question about corporate taxes and how he would justify them.

Ready for the recession?

It quickly turned into an attack by Bloc Leader Gilles Duceppe, who charged that the Conservatives were unprepared for the recession in 2008, when they introduced Jim Flaherty's fiscal update in November 2008.

That was the statment that led to the prorogation of Parliament and the attempt to form a coalition between the Liberals and NDP.

Harper said his government was in close consultation then with other G8 countries about the recession and how to respond with a stimulus package.

But at the time, Flaherty said: "We may have a technical recession when the next quarter is put with this quarter. It may be that both quarters will be slightly negative for Canada," Flaherty said. "At that point we will have had a technical recession." 

A few months earlier, he said the Conservative government will not go into deficit to cushion the economy from the slump in the U.S., the global credit crunch, or the strong dollar.

Canada and jobs

In his defence on handling the economy, Harper said the Canadian economy has created more than 480,000 new jobs - more than were lost during the recession.

That's true if you measure from trough to peak. But looking at the job situation over the longer term, Statistics Canada says there has been a net increase of 53,000 jobs between October 2008 and March 2011.

That's due to an increase of 64,000 part-time jobs but a decline of 11,000 full-time jobs since the recession began.

More on the economy

Harper said Canada under the Conservatives is undergoing the "strongest recovery of any country on earth" and that "job creation is far superior to any other advanced countries."

For a more detailed look at this claim, consider the Conference Board of Canada, which says Canada's economic grade is expected to stay in the middle of the pack, with a high "C" and a 9th place ranking in 2011, down from a low  "B"  but a 10th place ranking in 2010.

But although Canada drops from 6th place in 2009 to 9th place in 2011 in international rankings, it is not necessarily because Canada's economy is doing worse.

In fact, Canada's actual performance has improved on seven of eight indicators. Income per capita and employment levels are higher in 2011 than in 2009, GDP and employment growth are higher, the unemployment rate is lower, inflation moves into the target zone of 1 to 3 per cent, and performance on inward foreign direct investment (FDI) improves.

But Canada's ranking relative to its peers drops because their economic improvement is even stronger.

F-35s

In his defence of purchasing a new generation of F-35 fighter jets, Stephen Harper skated by the $75 million price tag for each of these jets, which almost everyone believes is going to go up. 

We've been down this road already. Check here for more on the price tag and whether we need these jets for a consolidated defence policy.

Out to tender?

A little later in the evening, both Layton and Ignatieff took a jab at the spending on the new jets, particularly given what seems to be their escalating costs. The purchase cost is still several years down the road and no contract has yet been signed, DND has said.

Ignatieff said he would put the fighter plane deal "out to tender" and save billions.

But there is no evidence that a tender process would lower the tab. It could conceivably cost more since the F-35s are part of a consortium purchase involving nine countries and Canada's place in the middle of the production run is said to be locked in.

Canada and the world

On a question from a viewer about what the leaders would do to restore Canada's reputation on the world stage, Ignatieff didn't directly answer, instead bashing the Conservatives for failing to get a seat on the UN Security Council and other failings.

He said Canada should be promoting democracy around the world and that Harper is failing to uphold it at home. But he didn't say what he would do if he were prime minister.

When challenged by Layton, Ignatieff defended his support of the training mission in Afghanistan while claiming Layton and the NDP wanted to "stay on in Afghanistan," which is not the case.

The NDP has been in the forefront of the federal parties, along with the Bloc, in demanding an end to the mission there.

The G8

Ignatieff went hard at Harper over the G8 and G20 summits, calling it a $1-billion photo op and said nothing substantial came out of it.

However, the maternal health initiative, which Harper championed, could be called substantial - more than $7.3 billion was committed. 

The coalition rears its head

A lot of back and forth here about the aborted Liberal-NDP coalition in 2008 as well as the letter Harper himself signed with his opposition colleagues in 2004 to justify ousting then Liberal prime minister paul Martin.

We will take a closer look at this later. In the meantime, for Keith Boag's take on the 2008 coalition and what it meant, click here.

Who can govern?

One of the most interesting exchanges of the night flowed from a question from Sam Diamond in Newfoundland, which assumed a minority government.

If it turns out to be a Conservative minority, he asked, that raises the possibility that Stephen Harper's Conservatives might not have the support of Parliament, just as it didn't last month. So could another party try to govern?

Harper repeated, quite forcefully in fact, what he has said on the campaign trail. "If you don't win the most seats, you don't get to form the government."

There are many examples of that in Canada's minority parliaments. But that has not always been the case.

In 1985, for example, the the Ontario Conservatives won the most seats but not a majority and couldn't govern. So the Liberals led by David Peterson, made a pact with Bob Rae and the NDP.

This was not a coalition government, it was a minority government with third party support and it survived for two years.

Then, in 2004, as Duceppe reminded viewers, Harper seemed ready to try the same thing if necessary. He drafted and signed a letter along with Layton and Duceppe, addressed to then Governor General Adrienne Clarkson, which suggested she should consult with them about forming a government if the Paul Martin government fell.

In other words Harper seemed ready to form a government without having won the most seats.

As Duceppe put it in the debate, "We said to the Governor General 'Don't want an election? Consult us. We have other options.' The other options are what? Gilles Duceppe as prime minister? Certainly not.

"The only other option," he said to Harper, "was you. You wanted to be prime minister."

Contempt of Parliament

In a one-on-one section of the debate, Ignatieff and Harper challenged each other over how we wound up in another campaign.

The Liberal leader said Harper was found in contempt of Parliament by the Speaker of the House of Commons, twice. That's not technically true.

The Speaker found a prima facie case of a breach of privilege and sent the matter to a committee. The Speaker himself cannot find anyone in contempt, Parliament does.

The opposition voted March 25 to support a motion asking the House to agree with the finding of a committee that determined the government was in contempt, and that it had lost confidence in the government.

Harper's response was that this vote was not a ruling by a court or the Speaker. "It was just the three other parties that outvoted us."

Battle of the coaliton-mates

In their exchange, Jack Layton essentially criticized the Liberals for propping up the Conservatives over these past five years.

What he didn't say was that he himself has done his part to keep them in power, and almost did so again last month when he tried to negotiate certain budget measures, such as more for seniors in the guaranteed income supplement.

One of Ignatieff's themes of the night was telling Harper that he doesn't respect democracy but Layton jumped on the theme and told Ignatieff that he too should "walk the walk." 

He then accused Ignatieff of having the worst attendance record in the House of Commons.

Ignatieff told Layton he didn't need any lessons on democracy but he didn't deny the NDP leader's allegation and presented little defence. Instead, he turned to Harper and again told him he hasn't earned a majority, or minority, government.

Voting records

46% - percentage of votes missed by Conservative Leader Stephen Harper - 142 out of 311 - between November 2008 and December 2010, the most recent Parliament.

59% - percentage missed by Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff over the same period - 182 of 311 - the worst voting attendance of all MPs in the House.

3% - percentage of votes missed by Bloc Leader Gilles Duceppe - 10 of 311 - followed closely by NDP Leader Jack Layton, 11 of 311.

17 - The number of MPs who missed at least 25 per cent of the votes in the House.

Elections and economy

In calling for a majority government, Harper worried that we would "lose our focus on the economy" if we have more elections.

That overlooks the fact that in fall of 2008, when the Canadian economy was in worse shape than today, Harper abruptly porogued Parliament and called an election, two years after the previous one.

Also, Harper's language around the coalition was completely different in this debate than it has been along the campaign trail and in his platform.

On the trail he never talks about "three parties" as he did tonight, he talks about "the Coalition" or the "Ignatieff-led Coalition."

In the exchange over minority government, he said, "of course parties will work together" and acknowledged he has "found partners" with the other parties. This is not language he has used so far in the campaign.

Immigration

The Conservative platform says the Harper government has had the highest levels of immigration in 50 years. They say they're also bringing in more refugees (both government and privately sponsored) than before, which does not appear to be fully the case.

In 2010, 280,636 immigrants were admitted to Canada, up from 164,203 in 2001 and 251,642 in 2006 when former Liberal government rules were still in place.

The situation for refugees was different: 24,693 in 2010, up substantially from 2001 but a drop from the 32,499 in 2006.

For family reunification, a policy the Liberals and NDP support more strongly, the numbers are 44,149 in 2001, 70,517 in 2006 and 60,207 in 2010.

Crime and punishment

Harper said that among the pieces of legislation being blocked by the opposition is the bill to "remove pardons for serious criminals."

This is the one that forms the basis of the opposition concern about prison costs but they also object because the definition of serious criminals in the bill includes anyone who is convicted of three indictable offences, which is not always what it appears on the face of it.

See our earlier reality check on the "Ignatieff-led Coaliton and its soft-on-crime agenda." 

Gun control

During debate over the gun registry, Ignatieff accused Layton of not standing up for it on a vote last September, an accusation Layton promptly rejected by saying he did in fact support it.

And he did. Layton voted in favour of the gun registry then but he also allowed his MPs to vote freely during that September 2010 vote, which is likely what Ignatieff was referring to.

Year of the gun

Layton said that increasing the number of police officers will reduce crime but there is little evidence to suggest that this is true.

Case in point: The summer of 2005 was bad in Toronto. Killing after killing led to the characterization of that season being the "summer of the gun."

A year later the murder rate plummeted and media began to wonder why. Several stories focused on an anti-gang task force set up by Toronto police, and the shift of 450 uniformed officers to the street.

Two years later, however, homicides were worse than ever; 84 people were killed in Toronto in 2007, more than in the so-called summer of the gun.

Any criminologist worth his or her salt would tell you that there is little, if any, causality between the number of officers on the street and the level of crime, which is a volatile thing, depending on many factors outside the control of police forces and politicians.

Police in the House

For his part, Harper said "we need effective gun control" and that "we support a strong system of gun control." But he has never proposed any form of gun control beyond what we already have.

He also said "every single elected police officer in the House of Commons has voted against the gun registry," which ignores the fact that every large police association in the country supports it.

As for the police in the House, apart from Julian Fantino, one of his ministers, who could he be talking about?

Health care

It has been one of his favourite lines and he has wielded it effectively in the past. Gilles Duceppe: "The problem with the govenment in Ottawa is that it has never managed a single hospital."

It is probably worth bearing in mind as you think back on the last leg of this debate and wade through the Liberal and NDP promises in particular about home care, long-term care, keeping drug prices down, and funding more doctors and nurses, particularly in remote areas.

These are not areas that Ottawa really can control with any efficiency. Hence, it's difficult to argue that they are current fixes to what ails the health-care system.

As for who promises what on the so-called escalator clause, the six per cent a year increase to provincial health-care costs that all parties are now promising to continue after the current deal expires in 2014, you can read our earlier reality check on the subject.

The issue here is whether the Conservatives have budgeted for this in their current five-year plan. They say they have but never mentioned it before the campaign began and the Liberals raised the issue last week.