Éric Grenier

Politics and polls

Éric Grenier is a senior writer and the CBC's polls analyst. He was the founder of ThreeHundredEight.com and has written for The Globe and Mail, Huffington Post Canada, The Hill Times, Le Devoir, and L’actualité.

Latest from Éric Grenier


How Donald Trump and a hockey coach could help decide a byelection in Quebec

The federal byelection in Chicoutimi–Le Fjord has taken an unexpected twist thanks to Donald Trump.

Doug Ford promised to deliver the GTA for the Ontario PCs and that's what he did

The Progressive Conservative gains in Toronto and the Greater Toronto Area alone were enough to win Doug Ford a majority government.

NDP, PCs looking to northern Ontario for seat gains

The New Democrats need to pick up seats in northern Ontario, but their gains in support have been modest there compared to the rest of the province.

With a day to go, Ontario election is still Doug Ford's to lose

Doug Ford's Progressive Conservatives began the Ontario election campaign on track for a landslide majority. They remain the favourites, but that is about the only thing that looks the same.

Once again, the GTA is poised to play kingmaker in an Ontario election

If Doug Ford's Progressive Conservatives win a majority government on Thursday, about half of the seats could come from the Greater Toronto Area. If Andrea Horwath's New Democrats win instead, it will be due to the party scoring a deeper breakthrough in the region than expected.

Will Toronto help give Doug Ford a majority government?

Both the PCs and the New Democrats are poised to make big gains in Toronto as Liberal support plummets in the city.

With NDP and PCs circling, Liberals look to save what they can in eastern Ontario

There are a few regions of Ontario where the Liberals are still competitive. Eastern Ontario is one of them. But can they hold off both the PCs and the surging NDP?

NDP, PCs look to pick up Liberal seats in southwestern Ontario

With the Liberals falling apart in southwestern Ontario, both the NDP and PCs are poised to pick up the pieces.

What the 1990 election can - and can't - tell us about the Ontario NDP's chances today

The Ontario NDP went into the 1990 election campaign trailing in the polls by a wide margin and emerged as the winner. Could the same happen in 2018?

Doug Ford's PCs falter as Andrea Horwath's NDP makes gains: polls

With two weeks down in the Ontario election campaign, voters are on the move.

Can Ontario's election tell us anything about the federal race in 2019?

Ontario has a history of voting one way provincially and another way federally — but it isn't a two-way street.

Election vote and seat projections

Full methodology for Éric Grenier's vote and seat projections.

Andrea Horwath's NDP making gains as Ontario election begins

Though Doug Ford's PCs enter the Ontario election campaign with a commanding lead in the polls, Andrea Horwath's NDP might have the momentum.

Four more years? Lots of provincial Liberals in Ontario and Quebec aren't so sure

As provincial votes in Ontario and Quebec loom, an abnormally large number of Liberal MPPs and MNAs are not running for re-election.

There's no room in Quebec for a new chip off the old Bloc

À deux c'est mieux? Maybe for a picnic — but probably not for the Bloc Québécois and its former MPs who announced this week that they will look at setting up a second sovereignist party to compete with the Bloc in next year's federal election.