Strict limits on social contact can slow influenza pandemic: study
Last Updated: Monday, March 10, 2008 | 4:58 PM ET
CBC News
Timely interventions such as closing schools and workplaces, along with antiviral drugs, should be able to significantly slow the spread of an influenza pandemic through a large city, U.S. researchers said Monday.
They looked at three computer simulation models to determine how such a pandemic might travel through a city similar in size to Chicago.
"All of the simulations suggest that the combination of providing pre-emptive household antiviral treatments and minimizing contact could play a major role in reducing the spread of illness," they said in a study published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.
The combined intervention strategies tested by the computer-modelling groups, if done early in an outbreak, were found to reduce the number of secondary influenza cases by as much as 80 per cent, said researcher Stephen Eubank of Virginia Tech in Blacksburg, Va.
Besides limiting contacts at work and school, other "social distancing" measures used in the models included voluntary quarantine and travel restrictions.
Members of the virtual community interacted the way people normally do: within households, schools and workplaces, and the community at large. All three models were set up to have attack-rate patterns similar to those of past U.S. flu pandemics.
"The good news was that all three of the disease-modelling groups involved in the study found that an outbreak of pandemic flu similar to the pandemic of 1918 could be mitigated if these measures were implemented quickly," said leader author M. Elizabeth Halloran.
Use of a vaccine was not factored into the study. Eubank told the Reuters news agency that limits on social contacts, therefore, would be expected to last for weeks if not months, until a vaccine can be manufactured.
Eubank said news of an influenza pandemic would prompt people to limit their contacts with others regardless of what civic planners decide, so he thinks a large segment of the population would not have a problem with such stringent measures.
Share Tools
Top News Headlines
- Air Canada confident it can reach deal with pilots
- Travellers flying Air Canada can keep booking their flights as negotiations continue with a new federally appointed mediator to help resolve an ongoing contract dispute between the airline and its pilots. more »
- Legalize pot, say former B.C. attorneys general
- Four former B.C. attorneys general are joining a coalition of health and justice experts calling for the legalization of marijuana. more »
- Whitney Houston's funeral to be held Saturday
- Pop star Whitney Houston's funeral service will be held Saturday in the New Jersey church where she first showcased her singing talents as a child. more »
- Online surveillance bill targets child porn: Toews
- A bill that would give police and intelligence agencies new powers to access Canadians' electronic communications is needed to protect against child pornography, says Public Safety Minister Vic Toews. more »
Latest Health News Headlines
- Diners keen on smaller side-order portions
- Researchers infiltrated a fast-food Chinese restaurant and found up to a third of diners jumped at the offer of a half-size of the usual heaping pile of rice or noodles, even when the smaller amount cost the same. more »
- Radiation after lung cancer doubted for some
- Older people with lung cancer shouldn't routinely receive radiation because it doesn't help them live longer, a new U.S. study finds. more »
- Legalize pot, say former B.C. attorneys general
- Four former B.C. attorneys general are joining a coalition of health and justice experts calling for the legalization of marijuana. more »
- Former Capital Health worker sorry for privacy breach
- A former employee of Nova Scotia's largest health board is apologizing for breaching the privacy of 120 patients by viewing confidential health records over a six-year period. more »
FEATURED HEALTH
- Online surveillance critics accused of supporting child porn
- Whitney Houston's funeral to be held Saturday
- HMCS Corner Brook collision damage extensive
- Online surveillance bill targets child porn: Toews
- Legalize pot, say former B.C. attorneys general
- Mooning Queen proves costly for Australian man
- MacKay says submarine fleet has 'spotty' history
- Man kidnapped at Greyhound station escapes captors
- Stanley Cup rioter seen in brick attack on cop
