Canadians set to vote Conservative: poll

Last Updated: Thursday, September 4, 2008 | 7:52 PM ET

CBC News

Canadians are most likely to vote for the Conservatives in a federal election, and believe Stephen Harper and Jack Layton would make better prime ministers than Stéphane Dion, according to a new poll sponsored by CBC News.

The survey, conducted by Environics between Friday and Tuesday, found that 38 per cent of Canadians would vote for the Conservative party if an election were held immediately.

By comparison, 28 per cent would vote for the Liberal party, 19 for the NDP, eight for the Bloc Québécois and seven for the Green party.

Even when undecided voters were asked to reveal whom they were inclined to vote for, the Conservatives still kept the lead: Conservatives (33 per cent), Liberals (24), NDP (16), Bloc (7), Green (6).

This latest poll shows that support for the Conservatives has grown since the beginning of the summer.

A similar survey done in late June and early July showed the Conservatives with 35 per cent support of decided voters, while the Liberals had 30, the NDP had 17, the Greens had 10 and the Bloc had eight.

"The Conservatives are now up by a couple of points and they are within striking distance of a majority," Donna Dasko, senior vice-president of Environics Research Group, told CBC News on Thursday.

"This is the early days and there is no election campaign right at this moment and things can happen, but certainly if you look at this poll today, you would conclude that the Conservatives are in a very good position."

The survey comes as an election looms in Canada. Prime Minister Stephen Harper is expected to visit Gov. Gen. Michaëlle Jean at 9 a.m. ET on Sunday and ask her to dissolve his minority Conservative government, the Canadian Press reported Thursday.

Canadians would then go to the polls on Oct. 14.

A total of 2,505 people from across the country were surveyed by telephone for the latest Environics poll. It is considered accurate to within plus or minus two percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Conservatives lead in Ontario, Prairies, B.C.

When looking at the regions, the Conservatives have a firm lead in Ontario — 43 per cent of Ontarians would vote Conservative compared to 34 per cent Liberal.

"This is the big story — the strength of Conservative support in Ontario and how their support has inched upward over the past several months," Dasko said.

The Conservatives also have firm support in the Prairies (53 Conservative, 22 Liberal) and in British Columbia (35 Conservative, 28 NDP, 26 Liberal).

But in Atlantic Canada, a traditional Liberal stronghold, the Liberals maintain the lead — 39 per cent of Atlantic Canadians would vote Liberal while 33 per cent would vote Conservative, according to the poll.

In Quebec, the Conservatives are second to the Bloc, which has 34 per cent of the vote, compared to 23 for the Conservatives and 22 for the Liberals.

Dasko noted that the Conservatives and Liberals are neck-and-neck in the province.

"What's interesting from the poll is how it splits out in terms of Montreal versus the rest of Quebec," Dasko said. "If you look in Montreal, it tends to be a race between the Liberals and the Bloc.

"But if you look outside of Montreal, it's a race between the Bloc and the Conservatives. So the Conservatives have a real chance, I think, of picking up some seats outside Montreal … That's where we're going to see a lot of action in the election campaign."

'Dion has a lot of work to do'

While Canadians are leaning their support toward the Conservatives overall, they also have confidence in the party's leader.

A total of 39 per cent said Harper would make the best prime minister, while 15 per cent chose the NDP’s Layton.

Only 13 per cent chose Liberal Dion, while 14 per cent said none of the leaders of the major parties would make a good prime minister.

"Mr. Dion has a lot of work to do," Dasko said. "He thinks he can speak to Canadians and pick up those numbers during the campaign, but he's starting from a real deficit."

Former Liberal campaign co-chair David Herle said Thursday that while it's clear much of the momentum currently rests with the Conservatives, the Canadian public's vote intention is far from clear.

Noting that the Liberals would need a 10- to 12-point advantage in Ontario to have a chance at forming a government, Herle said the party must make a 25-point turnaround there in the upcoming weeks.

"It's not impossible — many polls have shown them with that kind of a lead relatively recently in Ontario."

Conservatives for economy, Liberals for environment

When Canadians were asked which political parties could best handle a variety of heated issues in Canada, the choice was most often the Conservatives.

Those responding to the poll said they believe the Conservatives are best able to deal with the economy, provide honest government, deal with crime and justice, represent the interests of people’s home provinces in Ottawa and deal with Afghanistan.

By comparison they thought the Liberals could best deal with environmental issues like global warming and environmental pollution. The Liberals are also best suited to handle national unity issues, respondents said.

The Liberals and Conservatives were tied when it came to health care, chosen equally as the best party to handle the issue.

When considering the issues, the Liberals or the Conservatives were usually considered the first and second most capable parties.

However, the NDP came in second when it came to choosing the party most capable of providing an honest government — 27 per cent of respondents chose the Conservatives as most capable, 19 per cent chose the NDP and 14 per cent chose the Liberals.

The NDP, along with the Greens, were also considered strong when it came to the environment — Liberals got 21 per cent of the vote, with the NDP, Greens and Conservatives tied with 20 per cent.

More results from the Environics poll will be made available Sunday morning on CBCNews.ca, CBC-TV and CBC Radio.