The ridings to watch in 2008

Last Updated Sept. 7, 2008

by Don Newman, CBC News

Don Newman is senior parliamentary editor for CBC News and host of CBC Newsworld's daily program Politics. Newman is also the chief political and special events broadcaster for CBC Newsworld, providing special live coverage of Canadian political conventions, hearings, news conferences, first ministers meetings, provincial and federal elections and referendums.

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When the Liberals were courting Ken Dryden to be a candidate in 2004, they were able to guarantee the high-profile former Montreal Canadiens goalie two things.

One was that he would not have to contest a party nomination in the Toronto riding of York Centre. The other was that when the ballots were counted on election night, he would be going to Ottawa as an MP, regardless of whether the Liberals won or lost the election.

The first guarantee was simple enough. The Liberal leader has the power to appoint a certain number of candidates each election, even over the wishes of the local constituency association.

But how could the Liberals guarantee the election result in the riding Dryden would run in?

Actually, that is no more difficult than promising the party nomination. York Centre is one of a block of Toronto ridings that have consistently voted Liberal except in those rare occasions when the Conservatives roar to massive majorities after decades of Liberal rule. Like the John Diefenbaker sweep in 1958. Or Brian Mulroney's big victory in 1984.

In the next election they tend to return to their traditional voting patterns and send Liberals to Ottawa. In the case of York Centre, it barely batted an eye at Mulroney and remained a Liberal stronghold, which it's been since 1962.

What's in play

Except for the Greens, all the parties have their York Centres. But as predictable as the outcomes in those ridings may be, it is also easy to predict those ridings won't be the ones that decide which party wins the election and forms the government.

Instead, the ridings that will decide the election are the ridings the politicians know are "in play," ridings that switch back and forth, where a modest shift, a change of a few percentage points in popular support, can add up to a couple of hundred votes and the difference between winning or losing a seat.

After reviewing the results of the last election, I have created a list of 71 ridings, scattered across the country, where the election is going to be decided.

Twenty-seven of those ridings are currently held by the Liberals, 26 by the Conservatives, nine by the NDP, eight by the Bloc Québécois and an independent holds the other.

By geography, the ridings break down this way: 20 of the seats are in Ontario; 16 in Quebec; 12 in Atlantic Canada; another 12 on the Prairies and in the North; and 11 in British Columbia.

I will be watching the national campaigns, but also these 71 ridings on the list. I will keep track as we go along and let you know how things are playing out.

The provincial breakdown

In Ontario and Atlantic Canada, the fights are almost all between Liberals and Conservatives with a handful of New Democrats in the mix, mostly in Nova Scotia and, more recently, New Brunswick.

In Quebec, the fights are between the Bloc and the Liberals, especially in the Montreal area, or the Bloc and the Conservatives in eastern Quebec where the Conservatives did surprisingly well in 2006 and also in the byelections towards the end of 2007.

In Manitoba and Saskatchewan the battles depend on the riding. A few contests are between the Liberals and Conservatives. Most are between the Conservatives and the NDP.

It's similar in B.C. It depends on the riding whether it's Conservatives versus Liberals, or Liberals against the NDP, or occasionally, Conservatives and the NDP. The Green Party has, perhaps not surprisingly, been showing well in B.C. Whether it can win a seat there or just be an important spoiler, we will have to wait and see.

Sound confusing. Well there is a simple way to figure it all out. On election night just watch the results in the Ontario riding of Sarnia-Lambton. The seat was created in 1968, and since then it has elected a Conservative when the Conservatives formed the government. And a Liberal when that party did.

Battleground Ontario? Maybe. But battleground Sarnia-Lambton is more like it. An exciting place to be on election night. But not the place to run a star candidate who needs a guaranteed seat in the Commons.