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The Canadian Press/ Harris-Decima poll includes interviews with about 300 Canadians each night as part of a rolling nationwide survey that will continue throughout the campaign. The CBC intends to regularly update these numbers in conjunction with its polling partners. The Sept. 24, 2008, results represent 1,248 interviews done between Sept. 20 and Sept. 23. The poll's margin of error is 2.8 per cent, 19 times out of 20.  <a href="#latestpoll">Click here</a>[/CUSTOM]  to go to the latest poll.


Federal party planners must have been reaching for some headache relief when they watched the ups and downs offered by the polls that were published leading up to the Sept. 7 election call.

Polling company Decima, for example, had the Conservatives (37 per cent) ahead of the Liberals (30 per cent) in January of this year. But that lead collapsed, according to Decima, and the Liberals were leading by one point in mid-August, with 33 per cent compared to the Conservatives' 32 per cent.

Things have changed again since then, according to more recent polls, with the Conservatives up by 10 per cent over the Liberals.

Following is a snapshot of polls taken after the January 2006 election, leading up to September of this year:

 DATE/SOURCE Conservatives               % Liberals        %  NDP     % Bloc     % Green       %  Poll size/margin of error
 January 2006 election  36.3  30.2  17.5 10.5  5  --
 March 31, 2006 Environics  41  22  21 10  5  1,719/+-2.4
Environics


Conservatives deliver first budget

The Conservatives' first budget in May 2, 2006, cut the GST by one percentage point in July and offered almost $20 billion in tax relief for individuals over the next two years. The government also introduced a $1,200-a-year child-care benefit for the parents of children under the age of six

 DATE/SOURCE Conservatives               % Liberals        % NDP     % Bloc     % Green       %  Poll size/margin of error

May 3, 2006 Strategic Counsel Globe and Mail/CTV

35 31 16 10 9 1,000/+-3.1

June 23, 2006 Environics

39 25 21 9 4 1,886/+-2.3

Sept. 18, 2006 Strategic Counsel Globe and Mail/CTV

35 26 19 12 9 1,000/+-3.1

Strategic Counsel 


Dec. 2, 2006: Liberal leadership convention chooses Stéphane Dion

Dark horse candidate Stéphane Dion surged from fourth to first to claim the federal Liberal leadership, defeating contender Michael Ignatieff on Dec. 2, 2006, in the final ballot. "The most exciting race in the history of our party is over," Dion told a jubilant crowd of some 5,000 at the party's convention in Montreal. "Let's get ready for the election."

 DATE/SOURCE Conservatives               % Liberals        % NDP     % Bloc     %  Green       %  Poll size/margin of error

Dec. 30, 2006 Environics

34 32 14 8 11 1,728/+-2.3

Jan. 14, 2007 Strategic Counsel Globe and Mail/CTV

31 35 15 11 8 1,000+-3.1

March 1, 2007 Harris/Decima Canadian Press

36 27 13 9 13 1,000/+-3.1

Harris/Decima


March 19, 2007: Second Conservative budget

Conservative Finance Minister Jim Flaherty on March 19, 2007, presented his party's second budget, which included a new $2,000 tax credit for each child under 18. The maximum benefit under the plan will be $310 per child. As well, one of Flaherty's chief proposals was an extra $1.5 billion aimed at correcting the so-called "fiscal imbalance" with the provinces.

 DATE/SOURCE Conservatives               %  Liberals        % NDP     %  Bloc     % Green       %  Poll size/margin of error
March 22, 2007 Strategic Counsel Globe and Mail/CTV  39 31 13 8 9 1,000/+-3.1
March 28, 2007 Léger Marketing 41 27 14 9 6 1,500/+-2.6
May 3, 2007 SES/Nanos Research Sun Media 32 33 17 9 10 857/+-3.4
May 27, 2007 Léger Marketing 37 30 14 9 8 1,500/+-2.6
June 30, 2007 Environics 37 28 17 7 11 1,733/+-2.3
Oct. 12, 2007 Ipsos National Post/Global TV 40 28 16 7 8 1,000/+-3.1
Oct. 14, 2007 Environics 33 29 19 7 11 1,727/+-2.4

Léger Marketing

Nanos Research

Oct. 16, 2007: Conservative speech from the throne

The Conservative government unveiled its top priorities for the upcoming Parliamentary session in its speech from the throne on Oct. 16, 2007, promising major tax cuts, a vote to extend the Afghan mission until at least 2011 and new crime legislation. The speech said Canada should stay directly involved in Afghanistan until at least 2011. The government said it would call for a vote on the mission.

 DATE/SOURCE Conservatives               % Liberals        % NDP     % Bloc     % Green       %  Poll size/margin of error
Nov. 8, 2007 SES/Nanos Research 35 34 17 9 6 885/+-3.3
Nov. 8, 2007 Ipsos National Post/Global TV 42 28 15 9 7 1,000/+-3.1
Dec. 2, 2007 Harris/Decima Canadian Press 36 28 16 9 11 1,000/+-3.2
Jan. 3, 2008 Environics 36 27 17 7 13 2,032/+-2.2

Jan. 9, 2008 Harris/Decima Canadian Press

37 30 13 10 9 1,000 avr/+-3.1
Jan. 14, 2008 Strategic Counsel Globe and Mail/CTV 36 30 14 11 10 1,000/+-3.1
Jan. 26, 2008 Ipsos National Post/Global TV 37 29 14 9 10 1,000/+-3.1
Feb. 8, 2008 Nanos Research 31 33 19 10 8 841/+-3.4
Feb. 16, 2008 Ipsos National Post/Global TV  36 29 13 9 10 857/+-3.35

Ipsos


Lead up to release of federal budget on Feb. 26, 2008

Liberal Leader Stéphane Dion said he found the Feb. 26, 2008, federal budget "a grab bag that does nothing," adding his party would not vote against it, ensuring it would pass. Key features of Finance Minister Jim Flaherty's second such document was the introduction of a new investment vehicle for Canadians, dubbed a Tax-free Savings Account. In its budget, called "prudent" by many analysts, the government also promised $250 million for carbon capture and storage projects.

 DATE/SOURCE Conservatives               % Liberals        % NDP     % Bloc     % Green       %  Poll size/margin of error
Feb. 19, 2008 Harris/Decima Canadian Press 35 33 13 10 9 1,000/+-3.1
Feb. 20, 2000 Strategic Counsel Globe and Mail/CTV 39 27 12 10 12 1,000/+-3.1
Feb. 22, 2008 Angus Reid Toronto Star 34 31 17 9 8 1,082/+-3

Confidence motion on Canadian soldiers in Afghanistan

On March 13, 2008, a confidence motion to keep Canadian soldiers in Kandahar until 2011 was passed in the House of Commons. Revised following consultations with the Liberal party, the motion called for the mission to be renewed past 2009, but with a focus on reconstruction and training of Afghan troops. It also included a firm pullout date, calling for Canadian troops to leave Afghanistan by December 2011.

 DATE/SOURCE Conservatives               % Liberals        % NDP     %  Bloc     % Green       %  Poll size/margin of error
April 2, 2008 Harris/Decima Canadian Press 32 30 15 9 10 1,000/+-3.1

Revealed that MP left documents at former girlfriend's apartment

Stephen Harper said on May 27, 2008, that he didn't believe national security was compromised after classified documents were left at the home of the former girlfriend of Maxime Bernier. The foreign affairs minister had come under much criticism in previous as connections between his ex-girlfriend Julie Couillard and Quebec biker gang members and organized crime figures emerged.

 DATE/SOURCE Conservatives               %  Liberals        % NDP     %  Bloc     % Green       %  Poll size/margin of error
July 7, 2008 Environics 35 30 17 8 10 1,673/+-2.4
Aug. 13, 2008 Harris/Decima Canadian Press 32 33 15 7 11 1,000/+-3.1
Aug. 30, 2008 Angus Reid Toronto Star 36.3 28 18 9 8 1,012/+-3.1

Election call made on Sept. 7 for Oct. 14

On Sept. 7, 2008, Conservative Leader Stephen Harper announced outside Rideau Hall after his conversation with Gov. Gen. Michaëlle Jean that there would be a federal election on Oct. 14. Harper took aim at Stéphane Dion and his promotion of a new carbon tax. The Liberal leader responded that the October vote posed "a stark choice" for the country. Bloc Québécois Leader Gilles Duceppe said it was important to send a large number of Bloc MPs to Ottawa. New Democrat Leader Jack Layton touted his team of MPs. Green party Leader Elizabeth May said her top priority would be the environment.

 DATE/SOURCE

 Conservatives               %

 Liberals        %

 NDP     %  Bloc     %  Green       %  Poll size/margin of error
Sept. 4, 2008 Environics 38 28 19 8 7 2,505/+-2
Sept. 8, 2008 Harris/Decima Canadian Press 36 28 15 9 9 1,000/+-3.1
Sept. 10, 2008 EKOS Research 37 26 19 8 10 2,330/+-2
Sept. 12, 2008 Harris/Decima Canadian Press 41 26 14 9 8 1,406/+-2.6
Sept. 12, 2008 Nanos Research 38 31 14 9 9 1,200/+-3.2
Sept. 12, 2008 EKOS Research 36 26 19 11 8 4,367/+-1.5
Sept. 13, 2008 Harris/Decima Canadian Press 41 24 16 10 8 1,200/+-2.9
Sept. 14, 2008 EKOS Research 35 25 19 11 9 2,569/+-2.1
Sept. 14, 2008 Nanos Research 38 30 17 9 6 1,201/+-2.9
Sept. 15, 2008 Harris/Decima Canadian Press 38 27 16 9 8 1,200/+-2.6
Sept. 16, 2008 EKOS Research 38 23 19 9 11 2,848/+-1.8
Sept. 16, 2008 Harris/Decima Canadian Press 38 27 16 10 8 1,366/+-2.6
Sept. 17, 2008 Nanos Research 38 31 17 7 7 1,200/+-3.1
Sept. 17, 2008 Harris/Decima Canadian Press 38 28 15 8 10 1,366/+-2.6
Sept. 17, 2008 EKOS Research 38 24 19 8 11 3,154/+-1.7

Sept.18, 2008 Harris/Decima Canadian Press

36 27 16 8 11 1,366/+-2.6
Sept. 19, 2008 EKOS Research 36 25 18 8 13 3,992/+-1.6
Sept. 19, 2008 Harris/Decima Canadian Press 38 25 18 8 13 1,307/+-2.7
Sept. 20, 2008 Harris/Decima Canadian Press 38 23 17 8 12

1,270/+-2.7

Sept. 22, 2008 EKOS Research 37 24 19 8 12

2,823/+-1.8

Sept. 24, 2008 Harris/Decima Canadian Press 37 24 16 9 12 1,248/+-2.8

Sept. 25, 2008 EKOS Research

36 25 19 10 11 3,517/+-1.6

Sept. 29, 2008 Harris/Decima Canadian Press

36 26 19 8 9 1,250/+-2.8
Sept. 30, 2008 EKOS Research 34 27 19 9 10 2,296/+-2.0

Sept. 30, 2008 Harris/Decima Canadian Press

36 26 18 9 11 1,247/+-2.8
Oct. 1, 2008 EKOS Research 34 25 20 10 11 3,177/+-1.7

Oct. 1, 2008 Harris/Decima Canadian Press

36 24 17 10 11 1,266/+-2.8
Oct. 2, 2008 EKOS Research 34 25 19 10 11 3,947/+-1.7

Oct. 2, 2008 Harris/Decima Canadian Press

36 23 18 9 12 1,267/+-2.8
Oct. 3, 2008 EKOS Research 36 24 19 10 11 3,655/+-1.6
Oct. 3, 2008 Nanos Research 35 30 18 10 9 1,200/+-2.8
Oct. 3, 2008 Harris/Decima Canadian Press 37 22 18 9 12 1,254/+-2.8

EKOS Research


Campaign heads into final days after leaders' debates

As the campaign headed into its final week, Conservative Leader Stephen Harper unveiled a Tory platform that pledged $400 million more in loans over the next four years to help the beleaguered manufacturing sector in Central Canada. The long-awaited platform came amid increasing global economic uncertainty and almost a week after the federal leaders met for English and French debates. During the English language debate, Harper brushed aside repeated criticism from the four other federal party leaders that he had failed to produce an economic plan.

 DATE/SOURCE Conservatives               % Liberals        % NDP     % Bloc     % Green       %  Poll size/margin of error
Oct. 6, 2008 EKOS Research 33 26 19 10 12 2,606/+-1.9
Oct. 6, 2008 Harris/Decima Canadian Press 32 25 21 8 12 1,235/+-2.8
Oct. 7, 2008 Harris/Decima Canadian Press 31 26 21 8 13 1,251/+-2.8
Oct. 8, 2008 EKOS Research 35 24 20 10 11 3,599/+-1.6

Oct. 8, 2008 Harris/Decima Canadian Press

31 27 20 8 12 1,278/+-2.7

Oct. 9, 2008 Harris/Decima Canadian Press

32 27 19 8 12 1,275/+-2.7

Oct. 10, 2008 Harris/Decima Canadian Press

34 26 18 9 12 1,284/+-2.7
Oct. 12, 2008 Harris/Decima Canadian Press 35 26 18 10 9 1,256/+-2.8
<a name= "latestpoll">Oct. 12, 2008</a> [/CUSTOM]

Harris/Decima Canadian Press

34 25 19 11 9 1,218/+-2.7