After a summer that saw the federal Conservatives and Liberals in a virtual tie, the Tories have opened up a comfortable lead over the Liberal Party and appear to be making a breakthrough in Toronto, a new poll suggests.

The EKOS poll, done exclusively for the CBC and released Thursday, shows the Tories with 37 per cent support, followed by the Liberals with 29.9 per cent. The New Democratic Party followed with 13.8 per cent, the Green Party with 10.2 per cent and the Bloc Québécois with 9.1 per cent.

The Conservatives' lead widened from last week's poll, which saw them with 35.1 per cent support and the Liberals with 29.9 per cent. The NDP support dropped slightly from 16.5 per cent, with the Bloc and the Green Party remaining virtually the same.

Since May, the Tories and Liberals have appeared locked in a dead heat. Two weeks ago, however, Liberal support appeared to soften as the Tories took a small, but statistically significant lead. It was the biggest gap between the two parties seen all summer. That gap has widened over the past weeks.

The Tories also appear to be making headway in Toronto, having gained the highest level of support in the city since tracking began in May.

The poll shows the Tories leading in Toronto with nearly 42 per cent support, compared with 37 per cent for the Liberals. Although the error margin of 6.2 percentage points, given the smaller sample size, means the gap difference is not statistically significant, the trend suggests the Conservatives have become more competitive in the city.

Ontario continues to look like a tight race for the Conservatives and Liberals, with little movement in terms of support. As well, there appeared to be little change in Quebec, with the Bloc still on top followed by the Liberals and the Tories.

Respondents were asked which party they would vote for were a federal election held tomorrow.

The survey of 2,706 people was conducted by telephone between Sept. 16 and Sept. 22, 2009 and has an error margin of plus or minus 1.9 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. Both landline and cellphone users were included.

(EKOS)