Summer pump prices likely to stay below $1: analyst
Last Updated: Monday, May 11, 2009 | 2:00 PM ET
CBC News
The dark recessionary clouds overhanging the Canadian economy may have a silver lining, as drivers can expect cheaper gas prices during the busy summer driving season, a leading analyst suggests.
Drivers fill up at a gas station in Vancouver where gas prices have been hovering around the $1 mark. (CBC) "In the short term, I have a real problem with [gas prices] breaking the $1 per litre level," Roger McKnight, senior petroleum analyst with En-Pro International told Andy Barrie of CBC Radio's Metro Morning on Monday. "The demand is just not there."
McKnight foresees prices in the 98-cent range for the rest of May. "And from June, July and August I see it retreating from the low 90s to high 80-cent range," he said.
The reason? The widespread and ongoing global recession that is driving down demand and prices for most petroleum products.
Recession curbs demand
"A year ago crude was at $123 [US a barrel] and today it's trading at $58," McKnight said. "A 52 per cent drop is quite astounding."
Crude and gasoline prices spiked last week as traders reacted to employment data from the United States and Canada that proved not quite as bleak as expected.
"[Traders] were looking at any glimmer of hope, but I think they're grasping at straws," McKnight said.
Depressed pump prices are a welcome respite for cash-strapped consumers, and cheaper gasoline is going to remain the status quo until the economy shows serious, sustained signs of a rebound, McKnight said.
"When that happens, crude will start moving up very rapidly indeed, but I don't see this recession ending any time before the late 4th quarter [of 2009]," he said.
Gas prices in Canada currently hover between an average price of 87.7 cents a litre in Prince Edward Island, to $1.02 in British Columbia, according to Gasbuddy.com, a website that tracks the industry.
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