The Conservatives will lay out their priorities in a throne speech Tuesday night, and then it will be up to the Opposition Liberals to decide the government's fate.

If less than 50 per cent of MPs vote to accept the speech in the days that follow, Prime Minister Stephen Harper's minority government will fall and an election will be called.

Prime Minister Stephen Harper, shown at a ceremony on Parliament Hill on Tuesday, is said to have set himself up for victory regardless of the outcome of the throne speech.
(Tom Hanson/Canadian Press)

The Bloc and NDP have already suggested they won't hesitate to vote against the government if their priorities aren't met in the throne speech.

But Liberal Leader Stéphane Dion has said he's taking a wait-and-see approach, and will analyze the speech as a whole before making any decisions about how to vote. This approach leaves the future of the government in his court, political analysts say.

"All eyes are on the Liberals," the CBC's Julie Van Dusen said from Ottawa on Tuesday morning.

NDP Leader Jack Layton, interviewed Tuesday, is urging the Liberals to refrain from staying home for the throne speech vote.
(CBC)

If all 304 sitting MPs show up and vote on the throne speech over the course of a debate in the House of Commons that is scheduled to last six days, the Conservatives will need at least one other party on their side to win a majority.

Currently the Conservatives hold 126 seats in the House of Commons, while the Liberals have 96, the Bloc has 49, the NDP has 30 and Independents hold three.

Some political observers believe that the Liberal front bench — Dion and his shadow cabinet — will vote against the throne speech and that the backbenchers will either abstain or not show up. This would allow the throne speech to pass.

NDP Leader Jack Layton urged the Liberals to refrain from such a plan.

"Don't stay home from work on one of the most important votes in the House of Commons," he said, when interviewed Tuesday morning by CBC News.

"We've been hearing there's a plan for them to stay home. I know that's incredible to most Canadians."

But the Liberals on Tuesday were tight-lipped about their strategy.

"We don't know what's in the speech from the throne. … We'll have to wait and see what's in it," Liberal whip Karen Redman told CBC News.

Liberals will look for priorities in speech

Redman said she realizes that Canadians aren't eager for an election, having had six provincial or territorial elections this year and two federal elections in slightly more than three years.

Redman said the Liberals are willing to keep the government afloat, provided the throne speech addresses their key priorities — like fighting poverty, assisting the manufacturing sector and working toward a clean environment.

"We look for the principles, the values that we believe reflect what Canadian priorities are.

"If they are in the speech from the throne, if there's any kind of conciliatory language, any indication within the House of Commons that the parties want to continue moving forward, we will be the first at the table."

The Conservative government has not released specific details about the contents of the speech.

However, Conservative MP Peter Van Loan, the government House leader, said the speech was written with Liberal priorities in minds.

"We certainly tried to take into account the issues that they've addressed and they've raised," he told CBC News on Tuesday morning. "We've listened to what the other parties have said, but our real focus is on what Canadians want."

Van Loan said the economy, Canada's interest on the world stage, democratic reform, action on the environment and progress on tackling crime will all be addressed in the speech.

He said he's waiting to see whether Liberals will support the speech, just as everyone else is.

"I guess we're waiting to see what Stéphane Dion and the Liberals do," he said.

Speech proceedings start at 6:35 p.m. ET

Gov. Gen. Michaëlle Jean will arrive at Parliament Hill to deliver the speech several hours later than usual, at 6:35 p.m. ET — a time slot that can draw large television audiences.

CBC Television and Newsworld will have full coverage starting at 6:30 p.m. ET and CBCNews.ca will be streaming the event live. CBC Radio will begin programming at 7 p.m. ET.

The speech will mark the beginning of the fall session in Parliament, after a nearly four-month break that began June 21.

Some observers predict some of the policies outlined in the throne speech could be considered "poison pills" for opposition parties — policies that opposition MPs are so set against that they would either have to vote against them, or possibly embarrass themselves politically with their supporters.

Redman said if this is true, it means Harper is aiming for an election.

"He said for months that he doesn't want an election, and now he talks about putting a poison pill in the speech from the throne, hoping we won't be able to support it."

But Van Loan stressed the Conservative government isn't eager to go to the polls.

"We want to govern, we're looking for a mandate to govern," he said. "We've set an election date for Oct. 19, 2009, and our plan is laid out to take us through to that date."

'A win-win situation for Stephen Harper'

Van Dusen said whether the Liberals choose to accept the speech or not, Harper has set himself up for victory.

"In many ways it's a win-win situation for Stephen Harper," she said. "If the speech passes, he gets the agenda he wants. If the Liberals, in particular, bring [the government] down, he gets the election he thinks he can win."

Some political analysts believe the speech will outline tax cuts for individual Canadians and businesses. There also may be help for the struggling manufacturing sector, which has been hit hard by the rising Canadian dollar.

In terms of crime, the government will likely signal that it plans to reintroduce a crime package that died when Parliament was prorogued, with measures that include tougher bail conditions, harsher sentences for gun crimes and changes to the ways repeat offenders are labelled dangerous.

When it comes to the environment, the government is expected to declare the Kyoto Protocol and its emissions targets dead. Instead, the government will outline more plans for reducing greenhouse gases.

Quebec premier says spending cap a key priority

In the throne speech, the federal government will also outline plans to limit its ability to spend tax dollars in areas of provincial jurisdiction, political analysts predict.

Quebec Premier Jean Charest said this is a key item for his province, and something Harper promised during the 2006 federal election.

Even though there have been no recent encroachments on Quebec, Charest said he wants to see a long-term commitment.

"No one is asking for any special treatment," Charest said Monday. "What we're saying is: respect what we agreed to."