Prime Minister Stephen Harper is set to unveil his new cabinet Tuesday afternoon in what could be a major shuffle of some high-profile ministers.

Defence Minister Gordon O'Connor is at the top of the list of ministers rumoured to be on their way out.
(Ian Barrett/Canadian Press)

Throughout Monday, ministers including government House leader Peter Van Loan, Transport Minister Lawrence Cannon and Public Safety Minister Stockwell Day met with Harper at 24 Sussex Drive for one-on-one meetings.

Twelve or more ministers are expected to be switched as Harper puts together the cabinet it's expected he will take into the next election. The new cabinet is set to be sworn in at 3:45 p.m ET.

According to reports, some of Harper's most high-profile cabinet ministers, including Foreign Affairs Minister Peter MacKay and Industry Minister Maxime Bernier, could be slated for new roles. As well, Indian Affairs Minister Jim Prentice, considered by some to be a big star in Harper's cabinet, could be promoted to a higher-profile ministry.

At the top of the list of ministers rumoured on their way out is Gordon O'Connor, the embattled defence minister.

O'Connor has been pounded by Opposition leaders over his handling of the mission in Afghanistan, specifically his performance in the Afghan detainee affair.

Names that have been rumoured as possible replacements include MacKay, Prentice, Day, Bernier and Secretary of State Jason Kenney — all considered strong performers.

It is unclear whether Finance Minister Jim Flaherty or Transport Minister Lawrence Cannon will be part of the shuffle. But reports Monday night indicated the two would remain in their portfolios.

Revenue Minister Carol Skelton will not run in the next election and is expected to be dropped from cabinet on Tuesday.
(Adrian Wyld/Canadian Press)

No backbenchers will be promoted to cabinet, according to senior government officials, as some current ministers are expected to be given new roles.

But some cabinet ministers could be sent back to the backbench. There are five secretaries of state — junior cabinet ministers — and Harper could promote from there. 

It is believed that Harper wants a team of strong communicators in place for the new session to sell the next priorities of the minority government, which has stalled in public opinion.

It's expected Harper will relaunch Parliament this fall with a throne speech to outline these new priorities, which are believed to focus on foreign policy and crime.

Other moves could include Justice Minister Rob Nicholson. With the summer's spike in gun violence, and an eye on the much-sought-after urban vote, Harper may be looking for a stronger personality in that ministry and move Nicholson to health.

Gender balance

As well, Harper could move Treasury Board president Vic Toews, a former attorney-general in Manitoba with an interest in law and order, to public safety, paving the way for Day to go to defence.

Revenue Minister Carol Skelton will likely be dropped from cabinet as she has already said she won't run in the next election.

But her departure raises the question of how Harper, with only 14 women in his caucus, will address gender balance at the cabinet table.

Political science professor Barry Kay of Wilfrid Laurier University in Waterloo, Ont., said he doubts the shuffle will make a big splash in the polls.

Shuffles aren't as important as they used to be because of what he calls the "presidentialization" of the Canadian political system.

"The prime minister has pretty much come to predominate cabinet," Kay told the Canadian Press.

"The cabinet ministers don't matter so much anymore. They don't matter so much in policy and this is certainly true of Harper. I think he's very comfortable with the idea [that] he runs the show; he makes the big decisions. He basically presents the face and the agenda of the government."

With files from the Canadian Press