The percentage of people with diabetes in Ontario — and likely the rest of Canada — has grown so rapidly it's already higher than what the World Health Organization expected to see globally by 2030, a study says.

About 8.8 per cent of Ontarians over age 20 — about one in every 11 — had diabetes in 2005, endocrinologist Lorraine Lipscombe of the Institute for Clinical Evaluative Sciences in Toronto and her colleagues said.

Diabetics may have to test their blood sugar levels several times a day.
(CBC)

The figure jumped from 5.2 per cent — about one in every 19 — in 1995.

The 2005 prevalence is higher than the rate the United Nations' WHO expected to see worldwide a quarter-century from now.

WHO experts had forecast that by 2030, diabetes would affect 6.4 per cent of people globally and 8.4 per cent of people in developed countries.

Lipscombe, whose study appears in Saturday's issue of the British medical journal The Lancet, said there is every reason to expect similar trends exist across Canada.

"Obesity rates have been rising in Canada as well as a lot of the developed world," said Lipscombe.

"We know obesity is a strong risk factor for diabetes, and so we think that's one of the chief factors."

Immigration a factor

Lipscombe's team used population data from 1995 to 2005 to look at diabetes cases and mortality in Ontario.

During that time, diabetes prevalence increased by 69 per cent.

The rate had been expected to increase by 65 per cent in Canada and 60 per cent worldwide during that time frame.

Rates of diabetes grew most rapidly in people under the age of 50, especially young women.

Ontario might have a higher diabetes rate than parts of other developed countries because of its high rate of immigration from regions where people are susceptible to diabetes, such as South Asia, the researchers said.

Prevention urged

The increasing incidence among ethnic minorities and the youth, combined with decreasing mortality rates and longer lifespans, means prevention is the best way of reducing the global burden of diabetes, a journal editorial said.

The editorial suggests:

• Creating screening programs to ensure early diagnosis and control, especially for those most at risk.
• Informing doctors of cultural factors such as diet and lifestyle among high-risk populations and tailoring their care appropriately.
• Educating susceptible ethnic groups about risk factors, preventive measures and how to manage diabetes.

The direct costs of treating diabetes and its complications can consume up to 15 per cent of health-care budgets, according to the World Health Organization.

The higher rates are "a nightmare" for planners, said Dr. Edmond Ryan, a medical professor at the University of Alberta.

"This is a huge cost to the health-care system in terms of need and patient demand for services," said Ryan.
 
The study was unable to distinguish between Type 1 and Type 2 diabetes, but it is estimated more than 90 per cent of diabetes cases are Type 2.

In Type 2, weight gain, poor nutrition and lack of exercise reduce the body's ability to use insulin to control levels of sugar. Type 1 diabetes occurs when the body makes little or no insulin, and is normally treated through insulin injections.