Vernal equinox marks beginning of spring
Last Updated: Monday, March 20, 2006 | 11:46 AM ET
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Canadians bade farewell to winter at 1:26 p.m. EST with the arrival of the vernal equinox, which marks the day spring begins in the Earth's northern hemisphere.
Equinox is the moment when the sun passes directly above the equator, meaning night and day are almost of the same length.
Forecasters are offering a mixed bag of predictions for spring across the country.
Cherry blossoms bloom in Vancouver.
- In Charlottetown, CBC forecaster Kevin "Boomer" Gallant says warmer than normal temperatures and no extra snow mean Atlantic Canadians could avoid spring flooding.
- Central Canada is split, with eastern Ontario and Quebec a little cooler than normal and areas in southern and western Ontario seeing a wet spring, said CBC weather specialist Ian Black from Ottawa.
- Edmonton meteorologist Dan Kulak said Western Canada has a bit more winter to get through. "Typically, we do have most of our snow in the spring period," he said.
Last week, Environment Canada officially declared what many Canadians had already suspected – this winter has been the warmest since climatologists started keeping records in 1948.
- FROM MARCH 13, 2006: Yes, it's been the warmest Canadian winter on record
Temperatures across the country have hovered at least two degrees above normal, with Alberta, Saskatchewan and the Northwest Territories about six degrees higher.
"I wouldn't be surprised if they come down and conclude that they did miss something and it might have been an El Niño year," said Environment Canada's Brian Stifora, referring to the system of Pacific currents that can affect weather patterns.
- INDEPTH: The Weather Villain: El Niño
Stifora admits long-range forecasting is a bit of a gamble.
"We're generally in around the 45-55 per cent, so, it is kind of more of a coin toss than anything else," he said. "Short-term, we're probably ... in the high 90-per-cent range."
Saskatchewan weather forecaster Gus Wickstrom says his unconventional method of using a pig spleen to predict long-range weather patterns rivals Environment Canada for accuracy.
Wickstrom, who says he's right about 80 per cent of the time, divides the spleen into six sections, one for each month in a half-year cycle. He says he can predict rain and temperature based on the thickness of the organ.
"Why do [Environment Canada] get it wrong, with their satellites and expensive weather barometers and weather predicting machines?" he asked.
However, CBC meteorologist Claire Martin says 24-hour forecasts are pretty accurate.
"I know most people would scoff and roll their eyes to heaven when they hear that, but within the verification tools that we use, calling for a daytime high within one or two degrees of it actually occurring is considered a hit."
While Martin predicts a warm summer, Wickstrom's pig spleen warns early summer could be wet.
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