A special software program that predicts the future of the P.E.I. shoreline provided a shock for residents of Victoria-by-the-Sea on the Island's South Shore Tuesday night.

Climate change specialist Adam Fenech of the University of Prince Edward Island climate lab is taking his software simulation, Coastal Impact Visualization Environment (CLIVE) on the road to show people how climate change could affect their communities.

Adam Fenech

The climate change modelling is not meant to panic people, says Adam Fenech. (CBC)

CLIVE allows the user to navigate around P.E.I. and see how coastal erosion will change the province over the next 90 years. In Victoria, CLIVE predicts the causeway and much of the shoreline will be swallowed up by water.

"It's very insidious that over time you could end up with your house sinking into the sea," said Fenech.

Fenech said the P.E.I. shoreline is disappearing by an average 28 centimetres per year, but adds that average can be deceiving. Some areas are eroding much faster.

"Coastal erosion is so significant in certain areas. We're getting as much as 10 feet, or three metres, per year," he said.

CLIVE is not designed to panic people, said Fenech, but to give people who live on the shore a timeline so they know when to build barriers, or move buildings further from the shore.

"We really want to inform people about this... so that people don't stick their heads in the sand and hide from it," he said.

Fenech will visit eight communities with CLIVE this month. The next stop is Souris on Wednesday.

For mobile device users: Are you concerned about coastal erosion in your community?


  • The second slide in the photogallery shows the results of the projected sea level rise in 90 years plus a two-metre storm surge, not just the projected sea level rise in 90 years.
    Jul 09, 2014 10:05 AM AT