More picks to consider
Yesterday I said I'd be sharing some of the picks that the players in The Politics Pool are making for some of closer races.
Janyce McGregor
His most interesting predictions are about what voters in the four "floor-crosser" ridings in the Ontario pool will do.
The outgoing or incumbent MPs for Halton (Garth Turner), Mississauga-Streetsville (Wajid Khan), Newmarket-Aurora (Belinda Stronach) and Thunder Bay-Superior North (Joe Comuzzi) have all switched parties: Turner and Stronach from the blue team to the red team, and Khan and Comuzzi from the red to the blue.
In Stronach's now-infamous case, she was re-elected as a Liberal in 2006. Comuzzi has chosen not to face the electorate after his more recent party switch. The other two are campaigning for their new teams for the first time in this election.
In all four cases, Rodriguez believes, the ridings are likely to revert back to the party they intended to have represent them in the first place.
Which means he sees Turner and Khan headed for defeat at the hands of Tory Lisa Raitt and Liberal Bonnie Crombie, respectivel… Stronach's former rival in Newmarket-Aurora, Tory Lois Brown, headed for Ottawa … and the NDP candidate who finished a close second last time in Thunder Bay-Superior North, Bruce Hyer, making it over the top in 2008.
I should add that although the players in the Ontario Pool have to do a fair bit of picking already to predict 20 seats, Rodriguez added three more to his ballot — all in Northern Ontario. (I think he hasn't forgiven me for not putting more northern Ontario seats into the pool in the first place.)
He's calling Nickel Belt, Algoma-Manitoulin-Kapuskasing, and Thunder Bay-Rainy River all for the NDP.
Maybe it's not surprising — one of those was his old seat, after all. And his picks reflect what the NDP campaign has consistently told us to expect: big gains for the New Democrats in Northern Ontario.
On the other hand, other polling (albeit with large margins of error) earlier in the campaign suggested strength for the Tories. And there are a number of Liberal incumbents who won't go quietly.
In short, I personally am hedging my bets up there.
—Janyce McGregor
About the Authors
- Rosemary Barton started her television career reporting from Quebec City where she covered the ins and outs of Quebec politics. She moved to the CBC Parliamentary Bureau in 2007. She also stood on the side of road awaiting U.S. President Barack Obama's motorcade for hours in the cold. When she finally spotted him, all of Canada heard her shriek, "I saw him!"
- Alison Crawford worked in Fredericton, Calgary and Winnipeg before returning to her hometown to work in the CBC parliamentary bureau. Her beats include the RCMP, justice, public safety and the Liberals. Alison credits her investigative skills as well as a national etiquette column and coverage of a ferret Christmas party, with having prepared her for covering national politics.
- Andrew Davidson is a producer for the CBC politics page in Toronto. He joined CBCNews.ca's national desk in 2006 and was the lead news writer for the website's 2008 federal election coverage.
- Chris Hall is the National Affairs Editor for CBC News. He's been a member of the CBC Parliamentary Bureau since 1998. That adds up to 11 budgets, four elections, three prime ministers and too many confidence votes to count. Chris started his career in print before moving to the CBC in 1992. Since then, he's worked in Toronto, Halifax and St. John's, as well as Ottawa.
- Leslie MacKinnon Leslie's been working in news and current affairs since newsrooms used teletype, televison was shot on film and radio tape was edited with a razor blade. She saw through The Journal's long run on CBC-TV, and since then has worked in Halifax, Toronto and Ottawa in the CBC's various permutations. Right now, she's a TV news reporter in the political bureau, and likes certain parts of Ottawa - the canal, the Hill - a lot.
- Janyce McGregor has been a television producer in the CBC's Parliamentary Bureau since 2001. She started her career working for Studio 2 on TVOntario. In 2005 her then-doctoral student husband persuaded her to follow him to the U.K., where she worked for BBC World Service Radio in London. Janyce is originally a farm girl from southwestern Ontario. Her most important job title is "Norah's Mom."
- Chris Rands has been a member of the Parliamentary bureau since 2001. He started at Toronto's AM Radio giant CFRB before moving to CBC's National Radio News in 1996. Chris has worked in Toronto, Moncton, Sudbury, Regina, Washington and St John's. Every time Chris walks up to the Peace Tower, he wants to throw his hat in the air like Mary Tyler Moore.
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