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Hold onto your seat projections

As we've noted before, this campaign hasn't found its story arc yet. It's bounced between defecating puffins and flailing (Ryan) Sparrows to gas prices and Elizabeth May. These false starts only annoy the hardcore junkies among us who require a longer term relationship with the campaign, a day-to-day commitment from here until October 14th.

There is some good news in that the "rolling polls" have arrived. They've been in the backroom toolkit for a long time but pollster Nik Nanos and his SES Research debuted the public rolling poll in the 2004 election and it was a huge hit — and also right on target in the end.

More than a few basement, shut-in political addicts described it as "like crack!" (as if they'd know).This year we have at least three rolling polls to feed the habit: Nanos again, Harris-Decima (which the CBC is following on this site) and Ekos.

But Political Bytes predicts that the new fun this campaign will be seat projections.

Sure, we've seen them before and usually as an extension of the polls provided by the big mainstream opnion research companies. But what seems to have happened since '06 is a proliferation of "talented amateurs" with access to very current data.

They're imaginative and pioneering people. They're not intimidated by institutional orthodoxy because, frankly, there isn't any. If you're into this stuff it offers deep attachment to the Canadian political story without a trace of partisanship. That's rare.

To get a taste of whether its for you, check out Calgary Grit and this post.

Keith Boag