Harper's Quebec support softening?
Two polls published today in the Journal de Montréal and La Presse suggest that support for the Tories may be slipping in Quebec.
Emmanuel Marchand
It reports support for the Bloc at 33 per cent of decides voters asked, with the Conservatives at 26 per cent, the Liberals at 23 per cent, the NDP at 12 per cent and the Greens at five per cent.
The regional breakdown is interesting, too with the Liberals and the Bloc pretty much tied on the Island of Montreal.
The Tories are hoping to make gains in the ridings around Montreal but the polls suggest it might be tough for them to pick up those seats.
The Bloc is still comfortably ahead in those riding with a 24-point lead north of Montreal and a 16-point lead in the areas south of the island.
Where the Conservatives do seem to have a good chance of keeping their seats is in the Quebec city area, the Beauce (where Maxime Bernier is still very popular), and the Saguenay.
Just last week the polls were showing the Tories in the lead in Quebec. The general consensus is that cuts to arts funding and Harper’s promise to get tough on youth crime have hurt them here.
La Presse’s poll focused on seven key ridings. It shows the race is tighter than originally thought. In Public Works Minister Jean-Pierre Blackburn’s riding of Jonquière-Alma, the Bloc has taken a comfortable 12-point lead. Although Blackburn may be in trouble, the Conservatives have a good chance of keeping the neighbouring riding of Roberval-Lac-St-Jean. Tory candidate Denis Lebel has a 10-point lead over the Bloc candidate.
In the Quebec City area, the poll in La Presse is showing the Tories look like they may keep the ridings they won last election, but will likely not make any gains.
The French Debate on Wednesday may be key for all parties. Harper will have to come across as more conciliatory in order to try to win back the momentum.
Last election Harper gained a lot of support in the last two weeks and was able to make gains. This election the opposite seems to be happening.
— Emmanuel Marchand
About the Authors
- Rosemary Barton started her television career reporting from Quebec City where she covered the ins and outs of Quebec politics. She moved to the CBC Parliamentary Bureau in 2007. She also stood on the side of road awaiting U.S. President Barack Obama's motorcade for hours in the cold. When she finally spotted him, all of Canada heard her shriek, "I saw him!"
- Alison Crawford worked in Fredericton, Calgary and Winnipeg before returning to her hometown to work in the CBC parliamentary bureau. Her beats include the RCMP, justice, public safety and the Liberals. Alison credits her investigative skills as well as a national etiquette column and coverage of a ferret Christmas party, with having prepared her for covering national politics.
- Andrew Davidson is a producer for the CBC politics page in Toronto. He joined CBCNews.ca's national desk in 2006 and was the lead news writer for the website's 2008 federal election coverage.
- Chris Hall is the National Affairs Editor for CBC News. He's been a member of the CBC Parliamentary Bureau since 1998. That adds up to 11 budgets, four elections, three prime ministers and too many confidence votes to count. Chris started his career in print before moving to the CBC in 1992. Since then, he's worked in Toronto, Halifax and St. John's, as well as Ottawa.
- Leslie MacKinnon Leslie's been working in news and current affairs since newsrooms used teletype, televison was shot on film and radio tape was edited with a razor blade. She saw through The Journal's long run on CBC-TV, and since then has worked in Halifax, Toronto and Ottawa in the CBC's various permutations. Right now, she's a TV news reporter in the political bureau, and likes certain parts of Ottawa - the canal, the Hill - a lot.
- Janyce McGregor has been a television producer in the CBC's Parliamentary Bureau since 2001. She started her career working for Studio 2 on TVOntario. In 2005 her then-doctoral student husband persuaded her to follow him to the U.K., where she worked for BBC World Service Radio in London. Janyce is originally a farm girl from southwestern Ontario. Her most important job title is "Norah's Mom."
- Chris Rands has been a member of the Parliamentary bureau since 2001. He started at Toronto's AM Radio giant CFRB before moving to CBC's National Radio News in 1996. Chris has worked in Toronto, Moncton, Sudbury, Regina, Washington and St John's. Every time Chris walks up to the Peace Tower, he wants to throw his hat in the air like Mary Tyler Moore.
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