Jean-Marc Léger, president of the polling firm Léger Marketing, says the Conservatives will form the next government but Quebecers will be the ones to decide if they will have a minority or a majority.

He also says what will tilt it one way or the other will be the debate.

The Tories have only won a majority of seats in Quebec three times in the last 100 years — in 1958 with Diefenbaker and with Mulroney in 1984 and 1988.

But few know that francophones were Conservative first before going Liberal.

It was Louis Riel's hanging in 1885 that moved Quebecers away from the Tories. Quebecers then voted mostly Liberal for almost a century until the Bloc came into being.

Léger also says the choice now is difficult for Quebecers who, for the most part, are voting by elimination, not enthusiasm. He says the Bloc is not generating the fervor of previous elections.

The right-wing religious leanings of the Conservatives is making some Quebecers wary. And Dion's unsteady leadership also worries voters.

Léger says the Bloc's main opponent is not the Tories, but voter apathy among sovereigntists. He concludes: "The day after the election we won't remember the words of our enemies but the silence of our friends."

— Emmanuel Marchand