Were they just ordinary, unassuming byelections that took place in Quebec on Monday? Or are these three seats — two of which changed hands — more powerful portents in the fate of a minority government?

In politics, the pundits and politicians are always looking for trends. And for politicians those trends can lead to decisions that lead to elections.

The initial take: the Stephen Harper government did well Monday night; it reclaimed an old bleu riding from the Bloc in Roberval-Lac-Saint-Jean and it did better than most expected as the runner-up in Saint-Hyacinthe-Bagot.

At the same time, the Conservatives also saw their chief rivals, Stéphane Dion's Liberals, taken down a peg by losing their longtime stronghold, Outremont, to the NDP. (Yes, its candidate, Thomas Mulcair, was a former provincial Liberal.)

The upshot is that there is now a sense that the Harper government can present a bolder, more conservative throne speech on Oct. 16, one that could force the hand of the opposition parties.

With a stronger showing in Quebec under their belt, the Conservatives can probably be less fearful of the opposition Liberals or Bloc trying to force a quick election in the fall, which will make the agenda-setting throne speech something to be watched closely.

The numbers

In any event, all parties will all be analyzing Monday's byelection numbers riding by riding. At the CBC, we've been doing that, as well, and here's what we see.

Let's start in Outremont, a riding held by the liberals in all but one election since 1917.

The NDP won with 47 per cent of the votes cast compared to just 17 per cent in the 2006 general election.

Where did that huge surge come from? Well, the Liberals' share of the vote dropped from 35 per cent a year ago to 29 per cent, while the Bloc dropped from 29 to just 10 per cent. The BQ clearly took the biggest hurt there.

In Roberval, in the Lac St. Jean region, the Conservatives won a seat they haven't held since the Brian Mulroney era. It had been a Bloc sanctuary since 1993.

The Conservative candidate, the former mayor of Roberval, won with 59 per cent of the vote; the Bloc took 27 per cent. That's a little more than half of what the BQ received in the 2006 election.

The Bloc Québécois did hold on in Saint-Hyacinthe-Bagot, though the Conservatives did eat into the Bloc's margin. The BQ took 42 per cent of the vote in that rural riding east of Montreal; the Conservatives were not far behind with 37 per cent.

Other straws

Back in 2006, the Bloc rolled up 56 per cent of the vote in Saint-Hyacinthe-Bagot while the Conservatives were far behind at 25 per cent.

And the Green party? Despite earlier polling that showed Green party support growing — Quebec being a very environmentally conscious province — the best it managed was 3 per cent of the vote in Saint-Hyacinthe.

What do all these numbers mean? Would the Conservatives take seats from the Bloc in Quebec in the next general election?

That's hard to say. But based on this byelection snapshot, it appears that Dion hasn't helped the Liberals in Quebec. Some polls even suggested the NDP has more support among francophones today than do the Liberals.

But Quebec voters have flirted with the NDP in a byelection once before. Consumer advocate Phil Edmonston won in 1990 during the height of the Meech Lake controversy. It didn't last.