Stéphane Dion has probably had better birthdays.

At 52, he finds himself leader of a beleaguered federal Liberal party with a possible election in the offing. Not exactly the birthday gift he was expecting.

What's more, the little things that may have slipped by before relatively unnoticed are now magnified. Take, for example, what's happening with Jamie Carroll.

Liberal national director Jamie Carroll (Halifax Chronicle Herald)

Carroll is the Liberal party's national director and a handful of senior Liberals are today calling for him to be fired.

The story goes like this: at closed door meeting in Ottawa last Sunday many senior Quebec Liberals asked for more francophones to be brought into the Dion inner circle.

Depending on who you talk to that's when Carroll may have said the following, "Do we also have to hire people from the Chinese community to represent the Chinese community?"

Some Quebec Liberals say the comment was "shocking" and "revolting," and viewed it as comparing francophone Quebecers to just another ethnic group.

But others who were also at the meeting say Carroll was misinterpreted and would never say anything like that.

Of course, it may not matter what was actually said, the upshot is that Liberals are in a panic today trying to deal with the fallout. And some of the Quebec Liberals are angry with Dion for not doing anything.

When Peter MacKay took on the job of defence minister last month, there was no doubt he knew difficult days would lie ahead.

Only six weeks into the job, and one of the files on his desk puts him in the most delicate of positions: give the military new planes, and risk taking away the livelihood of some of his constituents.

For nearly a decade, DND's Aurora aircraft have been undergoing $1.6 billion in needed upgrades.

These long-range planes keep an eye on Canada's coasts, searching for anything untoward such as drug smugglers, human traffickers and vessels that might be challenging Canadian sovereignty.

But the upgrades for these planes are now suspended, as reported by CBC News last week. The minister has now confirmed also that buying new aircraft to replace the 30-year-old fleet is an option under serious consideration.

Here's MacKay's dilemma: a firm in his home province has been counting on the Auroras sticking around for a while. I.M.P Group International planned to enter a competition for a government contract to re-wing the plane.

Indeed, it's already built a $20-million hanger where the work would take place, according to a source in the firm. And you can appreciate why I.M.P would take that initiative. The contract is thought to be worth as much as $1 billion over a number of years.

According to the I.M.P source, "It was ours to win or lose." Indeed, the firm has already been working on the Aurora for years. As many as 1,200 to 1,500 employees toil away, doing what's called deep level maintenance, which is the work that helps keep the Auroras flying safely.

According to the source, "The Aurora is our bread and butter."

So, you get the picture of what's at stake here. If the defence minister opts for a brand new plane, hundreds of Nova Scotians will be out of work.

It should come as no surprise that Nova Scotia MPs are already getting calls from anxious I.M.P. employees. NDP MP Peter Stoffer says, "We're very nervous about the future of the Aurora contract," adding, "(MacKay) better realize we are watching this extremely closely and I'll be on him if he lets us down."

The employees of I.M.P. should know their job prospects by November 20th. That's when the suspension order expires and the military has to make its final decision on the future of the Aurora.

For MacKay, of course, it will also be a decision that could influence hundreds, if not thousands, of voters. Whatever he decides, it will no doubt be one of those days he knew would lie ahead.

Here’s some friendly advice for Liberal Leader Stéphane Dion from a senior Conservative MP on how the Liberals can avoid forcing an election this fall.

Follow Stephen Harper’s example from March 9th, 2005 when Conservatives sat on their hands rather than vote one way or the other on Paul Martin’s budget.

Their stated reason at the time: it was in the best interests of Canada that the government be allowed to continue despite the oppositon having issues with some of the budget contents.

So the suggestion to the Liberals for the throne speech vote in mid-October is that Dion and deputy leader Michael Ignatieff rise and symbolically vote against the speech but that every other Liberal MP abstain.

That way, Harper’s government would survive regardless of how the Bloc Québécois and NDP vote. And Liberals could retreat to fight another day.

Great idea for struggling Liberals. Except Dion would have to come up with a good reason why he’d allow his party to let the speech pass if it fails to include measures he’s vigorously demanded, and only recently.

Thus Dion’s choice: vote down the speech if those demands aren’t met but risk an election as Liberal fortunes appear to be on the wane. Or let it pass and have Liberals regroup but risk looking weak and afraid of both Harper and the electorate.

Rock? Meet hard place.

There was a time not so long ago when Stephen Harper and other members of his then opposition party raged against the Liberal habit of announcing much larger than expected budget surpluses.

Think back to 2004 when the opposition accused Paul Martin and the Liberals of a kind of financial dyslexia for turning a forecasted budget surplus of $1.9 billion into a whopping $9.1 billion.

This practice of underestimating the surplus so incensed the Conservatives that they promised to introduce a new position once elected — an independent Parliamentary Budget Officer.

Sure enough, the position was included in the Federal Accountability Act, the first piece of legislation the Conservatives introduced in 2006.

A core responsibility of this officer would be to ensure what the government called ''truth in budgeting'' and ''to improve the transparency and credibility of its fiscal forecasting.''

Fast forward to today.

There was Prime Minister Harper in Toronto with his finance minister, Jim Flaherty, announcing a $13.8 billion surplus.

That's nearly $5 billion more than the surplus forecast in the federal budget in March.

What does the Parliamentary Budget Officer have to say about that?

We don't know.

The position is still unfilled.

But the first advertisements seeking qualified candidates appeared just this week, in the careers section of several newspapers.

Prime Minister Stephen Harper and Finance Minister Jim Flaherty went before the cameras in Toronto this morning to tout the numbers for the fiscal year that ended in March.

The headline is that the surplus reached $13.8 billion. That's almost $5 billion more than what was projected in the federal budget just six months ago. And where is all that extra cash going? By law, the surplus is going to pay down Canada's national debt.

For his part, the finance minister chose to highlight the increase in corporate tax revenues. Corporate taxes, which comprise 16 per cent of budget revenues, did go up by $6 billion.

But what the finance minister did not say in his remarks is that personal taxes, which make up 48 per cent of government revenues, went up even more. In 2006-2007 personal income tax revenues increased by $6.8 billion.

So you might be wondering how much personal income taxes will go down, which is the other headline, the governments wants you to digest.

Well the prime minister answered that. He said that the interest saved by paying down the debt, about $725 million, will find its way into taxpayers pockets.

You can take a look at all the numbers here.

Still stinging from last week’s byelection disaster, Stéphane Dion awoke yesterday to more bad news.

First was the disastrous opinion poll numbers in Quebec. Then one of his own MPs told reporters Dion is too old to change his ways and win the hearts of Quebecers. The third stroke was ex-astronaut Marc Garneau, now a Montrealer, announcing publicly that he won't be part of Dion’s team in the next election.

It didn't get better.

Today came reports that the federal Liberal Party’s Quebec wing is so strapped for cash it might have to close its Montreal headquarters.

“Not a chance!” Dion’s office tells CBC, suggesting there’s simply a renegotiation of cost-sharing going on between the Liberal Party of Canada and its Quebec wing, the kind of thing that goes on regularly between national and provincial offices, at least according to the federal leader's office.

But asked repeatedly whether the Quebec arm of the party is short $250,000 it reportedly needs by Friday, as media reports have suggested, the spokesman would not say.

True or not, however, it’s clear someone among Quebec Liberals decided to leak the story, knowing it’s not the kind of headline Dion needs these days in Quebec.

Forgive Stéphane Dion if his head hurts.

Things are so bad for his party in Quebec that a Liberal senator, speaking privately with CBC in Montreal yesterday, likened the Liberal brand in that province to the pain reliever Tylenol when it was rocked by crisis.

That would be 1982 when seven people died after taking store-bought Tylenol tablets that had been laced with cyanide.

The good senator noted that the whole world quickly stopped buying Tylenol until the company found a way to fix its problem — lots of tamper-proof packaging — and rebrand itself. It’s now a top seller again around the world.

The Tylenol crisis is a lesson for Quebec Liberals who have watched their party lose its way, especially in rural parts of the province, the senator said. If Tylenol can come back, goes the notion, so can federal Liberals and Dion.

Please take only as directed.

Today we learned that Prime Minister Stephen Harper will not be attending this year's annual Parliamentary Press Gallery dinner set for later in October.

The annual do has always been a must attend event and venerable tradition. Reporters and their MP dates are glittered to the nines and party leaders and the Governor General compete for laughs with what are usually hilarious (well ghost-written) speeches.

It is well known that the press and the prime minister aren't exactly the closest of friends, but to miss the annual dinner is a mighty snub indeed. Notice came in an e-mail to the Press Gallery president, Richard Brennan.

"Richard, the Prime Minister will be unable to attend the upcoming Press Gallery Dinner." It was signed with "kind regards, Sandra." Sandra Buckler is the director of communications in the prime minister's office.

Scarcely a couple hours elapsed before the press gallery received word that Michaëlle Jean will not attend either. A double blow.

It is the kind of day political conspiracy theorists love.

A poll, two caucus meetings and whispers of political funerals. And once again the national story seems all about Quebec.

Federal Liberals gathered in Montreal to discuss their recent byelection blues and to develop a plan to win seats in Quebec in the next federal election. Last week's loss of Outremont, a long-time Liberal bastion, plunged the party into historic low territory of just 12 of 75 seats in the province.

And in a stark reminder of how in politics timing can be brutal, a poll released today indicates things could get worse for the Liberals before they get better.

The survey of Quebecers shows Liberal support among francophone voters at just 11 per cent, prompting a frank observation by Liberal strategist and former Cabinet minister Francis Fox. He told reporters that, at those numbers, Liberals can't expect to pick up any more seats.

And so while Liberals emerged from their strategy session with glum faces, the dutiful headed to the microphones to talk about uniting behind the leader and being ready to fight the next election.

Stéphane Dion took questions about his leadership. No problem. I'm ready for an election. I'll vote against the throne speech if we don't get what we want, he said.

No one is calling for his leadership head publicly, but privately Liberals are leaking their concerns. Some are even saying, bring on the election, let us lose and then rebuild under new leadership.

Down the highway, a couple of hours away in the nation's capital, another caucus meeting was also featuring brave faces and tough talk.

It is a familiar routine for world leaders, the September opening of the United Nations General Assembly. From far and wide, they converge on New York city.

But a lesser-known general assembly also takes place every year in the spring. And on this occasion, the world's leaders descend on Ottawa.

Well, world leaders is a bit of a stretch. But they would like to be someday. They are university students who participate in the world's largest bilingual Model UN. A program that is currently in jeopardy.

The United Nations Association of Canada relies on $100,000 in funding from the department of foreign affairs to organize the event. In early March, sources told CBC News that this funding had been cut and consequently the Model UN held earlier this year in Ottawa would be the last.

On March 7th, foreign affairs spokesperson André Lemay told CBC that no final decision had been made. The funding to the Model UN was under review, he said. But documents recently obtained under the Access to Information Act reveal something else.

Take the e-mail sent by Kerry Buck, a director general, to other staff at foreign affairs. She writes, "True that the government spokesperson wouldn't confirm funding has been cut? Because it has unless someone can get some of the public diplomacy money back for us."

Another e-mail sent by Buck reveals the Prime Minister's Office was concerned about the appearances of the decision. She writes: "As per our discussion, spoke to PMO/(Keith) Fountain. Keith's take is that CBC story may try to paint the cuts as demonstrating an anti-UN bias by the new government."

We asked the department how it reconciles the response it gave us back in March with the information in the documents. We are still waiting for an explanation. So far, spokesman Neil Hrab can only offer: "This was before my time here and I need some time to get my head around it."

As university students watch events at the UN this week, they too are trying to get their head around something: whether they will ever be back in Ottawa for a gathering of their own general assembly?

— By Don Newman

In this new era of minority governments, the one that began with the 2004 election, an impending confidence vote in the House of Commons sends the political parties into a round of puffing and posturing over the possibility that the government will be defeated and an election will be called.

That is what is happening now. Both Bloc Québécois leader Gilles Duceppe and NDP Leader Jack Layton have put into serious doubt the likelihood that either of their parties will support the Stephen Harper Conservative government in the weeks ahead.

Duceppe with his five demands that must be met before he will vote for the government's throne speech on Oct. 16. And Layton with his insistence that Canada must immediately pull out of Afghanistan to get NDP support.

The fact that each has put down a marker even before the throne speech is completely written — and certainly before either of them has much of an idea what it will contain — could lead to the conclusion that both think an election this fall works to their advantage.

For Layton, that is because his party's byelection victory in Montreal's Outremont riding has New Democrats excited about other Quebec possibilities.

For Duceppe that is likely because his party lost one seat to the Conservatives and saw Harper's party running strongly in the other byelection race the Bloc held recently. He is probably calculating that a fall election is a better opportunity to save as many BQ seats as possible, rather than try to hang on as the Conservatives gain even more Quebec backing.

Man on the spot

All of this puts Liberal leader Stéphane Dion squarely on the spot. As the official opposition, the Liberals are meant to be ready to form a government at any time. Supporting a government on a vote of confidence belies that assumption.

Prime Minister Stephen Harper was one of 80 world leaders at the United Nations Monday, attending its summit on climate change.

He used his speech to promote his vision of balancing environmental protection with economic needs.

Whether it struck a chord with voters is hard to know. But Harper did make an impression on UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon even if the secretary general had Harper's title wrong.

When the prime minister was finished his remarks, Ban said, "Thank you Mr. President Harper. Thank you also for respecting the time limit."

That last bit is an achievement, indeed, at an institution well-known for running behind schedule.

It's almost fall and that means annual charity campaigns are cranking into high gear at many government departments across Ottawa.

The Department of Fisheries was off to a roaring start at its fund raiser for the United Way on Wednesday when up stepped someone from the crowd who asked what all the fuss was about. When told of the campaign, he pulled out a twenty.

But in order to get a charitable receipt, workers needed his name. He told them he was their minister, Loyola Hearn.

A group of Manitobans could be seen wandering around Parliament Hill today. But they aren't your average tourists.

They are led by Premier Gary Doer who is lobbying politicians in every party to make changes to the Criminal Code to get tougher on certain crimes, including car theft and drive-by shootings. Doer also wants to give judges more authority to put teenage criminals in jail.

With Doer are city mayors and aboriginal chiefs. Also along is Kelly Van Camp.

He describes himself as an average guy who is in Ottawa to show how crime affects people. Earlier this year, Van Camp was out jogging when he was run down by a young person, joy-riding in a stolen car.

Van Camp admits he's not used to meeting so many politicians. But he says he is pleasantly surprised that they all seem to be interested at least in what he has to say.

Environment Canada is not a happy place these days. Sources say it is facing a budget crunch.

The situation is apparently so bad that scientists are sitting at desks staring at the walls because they have no money to travel or do their field work.

Among those hardest hit by the cutbacks are the Canadian Wildlife Service researchers, the people who actually go out to study wildlife in its habitat.

A regional manager recently sent out an e-mail to CWS employees telling them, essentially, that there's no money to do anything.

"As many of you have heard over the past few weeks, the department is under some very significant budget pressures. As a result, it's necessary to freeze spending on many of our program areas for the remainder of the fiscal year."

It goes on to list the measures it will have to take to save money. They include:

There’s been much talk about the Liberals' poor showing in Monday's Quebec byelections. The same for the NDP win in Outremont and how the Conservatives managed to steal a seat from the Bloc Québécois in Roberval.

There’s been much less talk about the Bloc and its byelection victory in Saint-Hyacinthe-Bagot. But the party's brain trust doesn't mind that at all. In fact, they would very much like to forget most of what happened Monday.

Yeah, the Bloc won Saint-Hyacinthe, but not by much. And the tightness of that race with the Conservatives may be leading to a rethink of the party's strategy in Quebec and, in particular, how aggressive it intends to be towards the Harper government from now on.

What speaks of summer better than a child strolling through the folksy, farmy delights of the county fair?
Picture a young man, say about six years old. He's wearing a ball cap. His small, tanned round face bears the scratches of summer adventures, some perhaps a little beyond his reach.

Now picture this boy weaving his way though the crowds at a county fair, towing his mother behind him, past the tractors new and old, and past the vendors selling sugar and cinnamon donuts, corn dogs and cotton candy. And of course, it's not just any fair. It's got to be the Leeds-Grenville County Fair, near Crosby, Ontario, host this year to the International Plowing Match — an annual rite of the last days of summer.

When Thomas Mulcair won Montreal's Outremont riding for the NDP on Monday, there was a victory celebration taking place a long, long way away.

Phil Edmonston, the one-time consumer advocate who won the party's only other Quebec seat back in 1990, was keeping track of the results from Panama via the internet.

Best known for his Lemon-Aid series of car-buying guidebooks, Edmonston is also a former U.S. Army medic who now does volunteer work in Panama City.

He says he's happy for Mulcair, a former provincial Liberal, who he credits with having "political experience, integrity and a good working team." But he has a word of warning for the NDP: don't get your hopes too high.

"I think we read too much into this if we say one seat in Outremont, just as in my case, one seat in Chambly, means that the NDP is going to be the party that's going to take all the marbles in the next election. There's a lot of work that has to be done."

Edmonston's advice for growing the party in Quebec: "Go for the radical middle. Stay away from the crazies, the one-issue candidates or the people who have agendas that are not really agendas mainstream, average Canadians can identify with."

Were they just ordinary, unassuming byelections that took place in Quebec on Monday? Or are these three seats — two of which changed hands — more powerful portents in the fate of a minority government?

In politics, the pundits and politicians are always looking for trends. And for politicians those trends can lead to decisions that lead to elections.

The initial take: the Stephen Harper government did well Monday night; it reclaimed an old bleu riding from the Bloc in Roberval-Lac-Saint-Jean and it did better than most expected as the runner-up in Saint-Hyacinthe-Bagot.

At the same time, the Conservatives also saw their chief rivals, Stéphane Dion's Liberals, taken down a peg by losing their longtime stronghold, Outremont, to the NDP. (Yes, its candidate, Thomas Mulcair, was a former provincial Liberal.)

The upshot is that there is now a sense that the Harper government can present a bolder, more conservative throne speech on Oct. 16, one that could force the hand of the opposition parties.

With a stronger showing in Quebec under their belt, the Conservatives can probably be less fearful of the opposition Liberals or Bloc trying to force a quick election in the fall, which will make the agenda-setting throne speech something to be watched closely.

The numbers

In any event, all parties will all be analyzing Monday's byelection numbers riding by riding. At the CBC, we've been doing that, as well, and here's what we see.

The folks at Citizenship and Immigration Canada must rue the day that 70-year-old Barb Porteous of Osoyoos, B.C., became an unwitting, flag-waving media star.

Barb, you may recall, was a so-called Lost Canadian. She'd discovered that due to some archaic federal legislation she was not a Canadian citizen — and never had been — in spite of having believed she was throughout her adult life.

It was a shocker.

To the embarrassment of the federal government, CBC aired her story. Then both the New York Times and the Economist magazine picked it up, and finally, this spring, Barb was awarded that elusive passport.

But now she's back in the spotlight, this time in a glossy magazine published by the United Nations no less, called simply Refugees.

Flip to page 16 and there's the tale of Barb's battle with Ottawa, nestled amid horror stories of stateless thousands in Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, and Zimbabwe. Swell company.

And in spite of Barb's happy ending, it's presumably not the kind of attention any federal government actively seeks.

The Conservative victory in a key Quebec byelection Monday and the party's close second in another were undoubtedly welcomed in the prime minister's office.

But they may also reveal one of Stephen Harper's weaknesses in that province.

The two Conservative candidates in those ridings have a common background: municipal politics.

Denis Lebel, who took Roberval-Lac-Saint-Jean from the Bloc, is the mayor of Roberval, while Bernard Barré, the runner-up in Saint-Hyacinthe-Bagot was a city councillor and deputy mayor of Saint-Hyacinthe.

They both brought to their respective races something the Conservative party is sorely lacking in Quebec — strong, local organizational teams.

Candidates from other parties tend to be backed by central organizations that help them staff their offices and run their campaigns. In these byelections, the Conservatives look to have been successful by piggy-backing on the local machinery their candidates already had.

A case in point, the Conservative candidate, a former diplomat, in the third riding up for grabs, Outremont, placed a distance fourth in Monday's vote.

It is with a shrug many people will head to the polls in Roberval-Lac-Saint-Jean on Monday.
Skyrocketting unemployment throughout Quebec's Saguenay region has people worried about their future.
After 15 years of voting Bloc, the people in Roberval say they are ready to try something new - but there seems to be very little excitement about it.

A recent poll published in the local paper Le Quotidien says almost two-thirds of respondents don't even intend to vote.

It could lead to some interesting results, depending on which party's supporters are the most motivated.

The ground is shifting in Quebec and tomorrow may give us a good sense of just where things are headed.

The races in Saint-Hyacinthe, Roberval and Outremont all look tight and the outcome is anybody's guess.

There is something at stake for all federal leaders in these by-elections though.

It must be tough to be prime minister and yet face the daily trials of mere mortals, like getting to work on time.

A few weeks ago, Prime Minister Stephen Harper was spotted stepping out of his chauffeured car to attend to money matters at a local bank machine close to 24 Sussex Drive.

Today, just back from a grueling trip down under, he and his three-car motorcade were bogged down in heavy traffic during the morning rush hour.

Occasionally the limo's flashing red lights would come on, but that netted the PM's driver absolutely nothing.

Ottawa drivers are a notoriously hard-hearted lot and don't like to give up real estate on the roads — apparently even for the country's leader.

Canada's chief electoral officer struggled to choose his words carefully in Ottawa on Monday. He was trying to avoid further controversy.

Prime Minister Stephen Harper has accused Marc Mayrand of violating the will of Parliament by allowing deeply religious Muslim women to wear a veil when voting. (They will have to proffer two pieces of ID or have someone vouch for them if they elect to keep their faces covered.)

Mayrand says he is only following the rules as set out in the law. Harper says this is not what the recent changes to the Elections Act were all about.

William Elliott is the new top cop in Canada.

Just two months on the job, he admits it's a daunting one, especially for someone so new to the force.

He says some rank and file members have been brutally frank in their comments to him as he travels across the country. He's been told it's a slap in the face to have a civilian for a boss, an outsider who knows little about the nuts and bolts of the RCMP.

But the Liberals think of Elliott as an insider, a political insider. That's because, among his other jobs, Elliott was Associate Deputy Minister under Public Safety Minister Stockwell Day.

It's been almost a year since Liberal-turned-Conservative MP Wajid Khan toured the Middle East as the prime minister's special adviser to the region.

The government is still refusing to release Khan's report from the trip, despite past promises to make it public. But we are getting a clearer picture as to how much the trip actually cost.

Documents obtained by the CBC through the Access to Information Act show that Khan and the two others who travelled with him spent more than $50,000 on the two-week, eight-city tour.

That's much more than the $12,000 the government had previously said the trip cost.