P.E.I. VOTES: 6 races to watch on election night

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On election night Monday on P.E.I., some districts will be key to shaping the legislature over the next four years, and the parties' positions in 2015.

Souris - Elmira

The east is the Progressive Conservative party's only stronghold, but this most eastern district is held by Liberal Allan Campbell.

Campbell, a key member of the Robert Ghiz cabinet, was appointed fisheries minister in 2007 and later promoted to the innovation and advanced learning portfolio. He is also the cabinet minister considered to be facing the biggest challenge in this election.

That challenge comes not just from attempting re-election in the Tory heartland. Two fish plants in the district closed this year, with the loss of hundreds of seasonal jobs.

Morell – Mermaid

Progressive Conservative Leader Olive Crane is in this district, and it is by no means a sure win.

Dan MacDonald is considered a strong candidate for the Liberals, well-known in the district and son of a former member of Parliament. If Crane cannot win her seat, regardless of how the rest of the election turns out, the Tories will probably face a challenge to her leadership.

Vernon River – Stratford

The Progressive Conservatives have made much of the urban-rural split in this campaign, accusing the Liberals of ignoring rural P.E.I.

Vernon River – Stratford, however, is a district with a significant urban component where the Tories have a shot. It includes the northern part of Stratford, P.E.I.'s third-largest and fastest-growing community.

Liberal incumbent Alan McIsaac won this district by just 66 votes in 2007. PC candidate Mary Ellen McInnis is a farmer living in the rural part of the district.

Stratford – Kinlock

The district that covers the south of Stratford is a purely urban area, and again the Tories have an opportunity to knock off Liberal incumbent Cynthia Dunsford, who won by 81 votes in 2007.

PC candidate James Alyward has a long association with the Tories, and is an active volunteer in the community.

Charlottetown – Victoria Park

The choice of Green Leader Sharon Labchuk to run here makes the district an interesting one.

Labchuk said she chose to run in the district because Green Party strength is in Charlottetown, but her choice was also likely influenced by incumbent Liberal Richard Brown being the environment minister.

How well Labchuk does in this district will be an important measure of how the Greens might fare in future elections.

Tignish – Palmer Road

The west has for decades been a Liberal stronghold, but that pattern was recently broken at the federal level by the election of MP Gail Shea, and Tignish is Shea's base.

Shea's team has been working with PC candidate Hal Perry's team to take down Liberal Neil LeClair. LeClair is minister of fisheries, aquaculture and rural development. With the Tory message of rural neglect, defeating the rural development minister would be a coup, and perhaps strengthen the party's standing as the defender of rural Islanders.

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