The construction of 300,000 square feet of shops and restaurants at Lansdowne Park would benefit existing businesses in the surrounding Glebe neighbourhood, a new study has found.

"It's my opinion based on all this empirical research that sales are not going to decline in the Glebe," said James Tate of Tate Economic Research, who conducted the study, Wednesday. "Sales are going to increase in the Glebe after the Lansdowne redevelopment."

The conclusions of Tate's study, commissioned and released by the Ottawa Sports and Entertainment Group, contradict those of a study released earlier by business owners in the Glebe, which found retail competition from the Lansdowne Park development would hurt existing businesses.

The redevelopment plan for Lansdowne Park, which is located on Bank Street north of the Rideau Canal, will go to a city council vote on Nov. 12.

Low vacancy

Tate's study was based interviews with 400 Glebe shoppers, including 176 residents, as well as data about the neighbourhood. Tate found that the vacancy rate in the neighbourhood was 1.8 per cent — far below average — suggesting that there currently isn't enough retail space there.

"There's not enough room for stores to expand or for new stores to open up in the existing buildings," he said.

He predicted most stores would get a boost in profits if Lansdowne Park is redeveloped, mainly due to the increase in foot traffic and "traffic in general."

In addition, 33 per cent of respondents said they would visit the Glebe more often if the park were redeveloped, while only 16 per cent would visit less often. When asked if there were other stores or services they would like to see in the Glebe, 51 per cent of respondents said yes.

Supermarkets would lose sales

Tate's study found that the Glebe's two supermarkets would see a dip in sales as a result of the Lansdowne redevelopment, but that they currently enjoy twice the sales volume of stores in other neighbourhoods. He predicted they could survive the drop in sales.

Tate's conclusions are in sharp contrast to the findings of market researcher Barry Nabatian, who was commissioned by the Glebe Business Improvement Area to conduct a similar study this past summer.

Nabatian surveyed 404 shoppers and another 404 Ottawa residents by telephone this summer. He concluded that the existing retail market in the Glebe is already "fragile" due to access, congestion, parking problems and competition. Competition at Lansdowne Park combined with the anticipated reconstruction of Bank Street along that strip during the next two years would be "quite likely…to be detrimental to many of the existing businesses in the Glebe."

Roger Greenberg, one of the developers with the Ottawa Sports and Entertainment Group, said he hasn't yet seen Nabatian's final report, but said its conclusion is a "very legitimate concern." He added that he plans to examine and compare it to his own study to see which is the better report.

Both researchers and the organizations that commissioned their reports are to meet with city manager Kent Kirkpatrick next week to explain how they came up with such different results.