Now who do you trust on the economy?
Posted in Online Panel Blog Posted on October 6, 2008 10:39 PM | PermalinkNik: As I write this, the TSX on Monday is down over 1,000 points, the Dow has plunged below 10,000 and the price of a barrel of oil is below $90.
At the beginning of the campaign, the initial Conservative support was partly due to the message that the Liberals would be a risky choice on the economy. The first Wall Street meltdown validated the Conservative message.
However, Harper has been firm in saying that the economic fundamentals in Canada are good and that the Conservative strategy of tax cuts set a strong foundation.
The challenge for him is that if the perception unfolds that Canada must be more proactive on the economy, this initial advantage may turn into a vulnerability.
When Canadians see wild fluctuations in the value of their RRSPs or the savings for their children's education fund, they get nervous. Looking south, it's clear that even the right-wing Bush administration is being proactive.
The opposition party leaders touched on this in the two debates.
In addition to the economy playing out as an issue, Tuesday's Conservative platform launch will be critical for their campaign.
Sarah: Given the current crisis, I think Harper has some significant challenges.
His social policies don't really mesh well with Canadian values, but he managed to do well in the past due to a healthy economy. Now it's all changing and the average person is feeling panicked, wondering if it was such a good idea to blow our surplus without strengthening jobs or Employment Insurance programs.
I don't believe Harper's platform will bring anything new to the table. He's been promising business as usual for the last month, so any major changes would, I think, be viewed as desperate.
I don't see a comeback here. I do wonder, though, how the NDP and the Liberals will split votes.
Pauline: The platform launch may be critical, but the fact that it is coming after the advance polls are closed indicates a certain arrogance that remains Harper's biggest Achilles' heel.
Watching the debate, I thought that Harper would come to regret leaving the impression that he did not share the concern of so-called ordinary Canadians about their economic prospects. People are worried about their houses, their RRSPs, their children's future.
A reputation for decisiveness and competence is great as long as people believe your chosen course of action (or inaction) is the right one.
A lack of empathy creates a different problem: a "benefit of the doubt" deficit.
If things don't turn around for the Conservatives in the next eight days — and they have no control over stock markets and bank failures — I think there will be a lot of people refusing to give the Conservative leader the benefit of the doubt.
The question then becomes: who will they trust instead?
Sarah: I think it is safe to say that Canadians are starting to worry about poverty. I don't think anyone believes at this point that Canada's economic engine is going to keep on chugging.
I don't want to repeat what was said in the debates, but as the opposition pointed out, job security is an issue, employment insurance is an issue, affordable health care is an issue, and affordable housing is now an issue.
The Conservatives haven't bothered to address these issues and that I believe will play out in the week ahead.
I think it was economist John Kenneth Galbraith who said something along the lines of "save when times are good and spend when times are bad." Well, bad times are coming and we've got nothing saved to spend.
Nik: Sarah, I understand your point, but poverty is rarely a big vote driver — at least not compared to jobs, health care and taxes.
I think Canadians are more likely to worry about the well-being of themselves and their families. Sometimes poverty become an issue when the economy is robust because Canadians think in terms of "we should not have problems with poverty when the economy is strong, let's do something to help those less fortunate."
This is election is more about the "me." What does the financial meltdown mean to me? What will a downturn in the U.S. economy mean to my family?
I expect that many Canadians will examine the Conservative platform looking to see how it relates to the financial uncertainty in the nation and the Conservatives run the risk that a "laissez-faire" attitude is twisted into a perception of insensitivity.
Sarah: According to the Toronto Star, often viewed as a left-wing paper I know, poverty is the number four issue on voters' minds.
Certainly, it is important enough that the Liberals, NDP and Greens all have strategies for reducing it.
True enough, most people are worrying about themselves and their families. But I think they are also wondering about some of the safeguards that have been eroded over the past 20 years and wondering if perhaps they should be strengthened again.
In Vancouver and Victoria, homelessness happens to be the number one issue. Local governments are trying to come up with solutions and they are openly frustrated by the lack of federal support.
With bleak economic forecasts I think fewer Canadians will be identifying themselves as middle class and will be starting to identify with the frustrations of being poor.
Pauline: Today's Toronto Star also led on page one with the nasty attack on Carolyn Bennett's campaign (she's the Liberal incumbent in the downtown St. Paul's riding). Vandals cut the brake cables on cars belonging to 12 of her workers — someone could have been killed!
This kind of thing alarms me and, I fear, feeds into the general climate of nastiness that we can expect in the last eight days of the election campaign.
Sarah: I don't even know what to think of this and I can't guess at the reasons behind it. I can only guess that these are the random acts of unstable individuals.
I don't believe these acts of violence were supported in any way by anyone within a political party.
Pauline: I agree, but my point is that we are suddenly in a different dynamic in the home stretch of this campaign.
The fact that the Conservatives have misjudged certain things, such as not having a platform until after the advance polls and the many incidents Nik has referred to in his previous posts, will also play into it.
Nik: One thing I have confidence in is the collective wisdom of Canadians.
As a country, we have an uncanny knack of doing the right thing and sorting through the election promises and the rhetoric.
I'm confident that whatever the outcome, it will be the right judgment on the parties and the leaders — and even the pollsters.
About the Authors
Sarah Albertson lives in Vancouver where she works for an environmental group that promotes public transportation. She has always been interested in politics and, in 2002, founded a new civic party called the Dance Party Party, which was designed to get young voters involved in the electoral process. The DPP fielded two candidates in the Vancouver municipal election that year.
Pauline Couture is a journalist, author, communications consultant and public policy volunteer, careers that have taken her across Canada and around the world. Based in both Toronto and Montreal, she has worked in a range of knowledge industries from media and telecommunications to energy and financial services, with a special interest in culture.
» For more, go to the Pauline Couture site.
Nik Nanos is one of Canada's most trusted pollsters and the president of Ottawa-based Nanos Research. He is the official pollster for CPAC, the Cable Public Affairs Channel, Quebecor's Sun and Osprey Media Groups and Policy Options magazine. Nanos is also a research associate professor in Canadian Studies at the State University of New York in Buffalo.
» For more, go to Nanos Research.
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