Nik: Another interesting week on the campaign trail, the Conservatives continue to lead, no major gaffes but a few bumps on the road.

Earlier this week, the Liberals released their platform. Polling shows that there was neither an increase in Liberal support nor an improvement in the perceptions of Stéphane Dion.

Indeed, the day of the launch also featured Harper's tough on crime announcement. The outcome of the day? Tories up three points, Grits down three points.

It seems that regardless of what the Liberals do, they have not yet succeeded in moving the dial. The latest CPAC-Nanos tracking has the Liberals at historic lows in public support.

Of note, Harper's comments about culture does not seem to be playing well in Quebec. I've notice a bit of a slip in Conservative numbers in that province (though it could be a short-term occurrence).

Also, although Layton still remains ahead of Dion on many of the leadership measures, his talk about the coalition had a negative impact on his personal image in the short run, specifically on "vision."

Get ready for more volatility (code for headaches for pollsters).

Pauline: Poor pollsters! Seriously, Nik, you guys love this kind of stuff. And not that I'm trying to flatter you, we do know that you have been the most accurate polling house in the last few years when it comes to election results.

But all the same, what you are describing amounts to a landscape where there is a sharp diversion between the kinds of policies that would actually meet the needs of our society and the ability to explain them to a population bombarded with constant simplistic imagery and clever spin.

The Conservatives, fueled by cash reservesmany times larger than what the opposition has, have been masters
of this discipline. It is hard to overestimate the sheer competence of their team in this kind of an environment.

At this stage of the campaign, many people might be tempted to foresee a Conservative majority. But there is also still time at this stage for unforeseeable developments to derail the big blue train or to knock it back to a minority.

Here are two of the ones I see as potential problems for the Conservatives: push-back against deregulation policies from people scared off by the Wall Street crisis and the tainted food scandals; and a miscalculation of the importance of the culture file because it is so heavily discounted in the polling instruments.

If you're not measuring that, you're not getting an accurate reading.

Sarah: I've spent the last few days here in Penticton at a meeting of municipal leaders and one of the top resolutions here is on homelessness, a topic that also hasn't seen much focus in the federal campaign.

In fact, Canada remains the only G7 country without a national housing strategy. To be fair, Harper did announce some money for housing last week, but not a lot. And he kept the announcement fairly low-key, probably to avoid a focus on the issue during the campaign.

It is interesting that 10 years ago child poverty and homelessness were important parts of federal election campaigns and now, despite these issues being more pronounced than ever before, they have been moved to the background.

It may all be part of the fact that Canadians don't have high expectations of what a federal government can actually achieve.

As for Layton, I, too, was surprised to see him at least consider forming an alliance with the Liberals. I think it's fair to say that while the Liberals move to the left during campaigns, they typically swing right when elected.

But perhaps Layton believes Dion is different from his predecessors. In any case, Dion was quick to dismiss the possibility of joining forces during the election. Canadians will be working out their own strategies, however. I know a handful of people prepared to engage in vote swapping.

Nik: The level of voter volality is quite high — especially in the province of Quebec. The current trend line favours the Conservatives but my sense is that by the end of the campaign the issue will be about a Harper majority and the comfort or discomfort Canadians have with that concept.

Sarah: I agree with you, Nik, but I think it's the timing of the election that favours Harper. The top concern right now is the economy, due to what is happening in the States. If the environment were the number one concern, and it very well could be in a few months time, the outcome of this election would be much different.

Pauline: I suspect that the latent discomfort with a Harper majority is quite deep. And while there is no doubt that the expensive army of data-miners, strategists and other specialists that Harper commands is doing a superb job, these folks also have a tendency to be tone-deaf on the emotional resonance of issues that do not fit their ideological schema.

I'm thinking of things such as homelessness and housing, as you point out, Sarah, and also the importance of helping cities become sustainable, and the profound influence and importance of the arts and culture.

If, and only if, advocates for these issues, with their far lesser resources, are able to galvanize the public, that could still keep the Tories to a minority or an even less predictable outcome.

Sarah: Across B.C., all civic elections will be held this coming November and the issues are exactly as you have identified them, Pauline, namely housing, sustainability, and arts and culture.

The level of engagement at the civic level is increasing with people placing more importance on local governments than ever before. It reminds me somewhat of what has happened in the U.S., where 700 cities have committed to climate reduction strategies, many of them very ambitious, while Washington continues to ignore Kyoto and its implications.

It gives me some hope that, no matter what the outcome of this federal election, we can all move ahead with progressive social and environmental agendas at the local level.

Although, more money from the feds would be nice.

Nik: I would be more prone to break out the big universal issues from the so-called hot-button issues. Whenever we poll, health care, the economy, the environment and the war in Afghanistan are the issues Canadians are concerned about.

The parties, however, scrap over the hot-button issues — crime, daycare, gas prices, etc. — which can motivate and influence voting behaviour.

Harper has benefited from having a message track on the economy and "the risk of supporting the Dion-Liberals" that coincides with the financial meltdown in the U.S.

That focus and the fluctuations in the market have effectively validated the economy as a key issue in this campaign. The question is, however, will this be a sustainable issue to end.

Pauline: Perhaps I am still influenced by the week I have just spent in South Africa with the Sustainable Cities: PLIS Network, but I really wish that for once we could have a national dialogue about genuine sustainablity: environmental, economic and cultural.

This election is interesting, but it's not even in the same league as the discussions that are happening all over the real world. And that's a real shame.