Online Panel Blog

Pauline: Sarah, Nik,

I have been on the ground in Quebec this weekend, speaking to a broad range of people, from artists to political operators and so-called "ordinary" people.

What I wanted to know was how a smooth Harper machine could have thrown such a gorgeously wrapped present to the Bloc Québécois as the $45-million cut to the arts and the prime minister's subsequent dismissive remarks about culture.

I was speculating that perhaps there was an element of vindictiveness to it — revenge for the arts community's outcry over Bill C-10, with its potential for censorship; sabotage for the Governor General's efforts to leave a legacy of placing the arts at the heart of Canadian life.

Well, apparently, it's somewhat simpler than that. I am told that Dmitri Soudas, the PMO's communications guru, was attending his mother's funeral in Greece when this particular discussion took place. That left the red-meat types in charge — and they thought this would be a great idea.

As you know, it's not playing well in most Quebec ridings. The Conservatives believe they will hold on to all their current Quebec seats, with the support of Mario Dumont's ADQ machine. But their gains are likely to be substantially slowed by the arts cuts and the controversy over sentences for youth crime.

For the first time, Quebec observers are talking about a "made-in-Canada" Conservative majority that owes very little to Quebec. That would be a very interesting scenario that few would have predicted just a few days ago.

Nik: Another interesting week on the campaign trail, the Conservatives continue to lead, no major gaffes but a few bumps on the road.

Earlier this week, the Liberals released their platform. Polling shows that there was neither an increase in Liberal support nor an improvement in the perceptions of Stéphane Dion.

Indeed, the day of the launch also featured Harper's tough on crime announcement. The outcome of the day? Tories up three points, Grits down three points.

It seems that regardless of what the Liberals do, they have not yet succeeded in moving the dial. The latest CPAC-Nanos tracking has the Liberals at historic lows in public support.

Of note, Harper's comments about culture does not seem to be playing well in Quebec. I've notice a bit of a slip in Conservative numbers in that province (though it could be a short-term occurrence).

Also, although Layton still remains ahead of Dion on many of the leadership measures, his talk about the coalition had a negative impact on his personal image in the short run, specifically on "vision."

Sarah: Hi Pauline, Nik,

What to talk about first? There are so many angles to play with here, the contrasts in the campaigns are beginning to show.

Both the NDP and the Liberals have come out with some bold proposals, from pharmaceutical subsidies to post-secondary debt relief and childcare. All of which will most definitely cost a pretty penny.

The Conservatives’ response? Take aim at fun-flavoured tobacco products and offer first-time homebuyers a tax credit of $750. I live in Vancouver, the average house here costs $700,000! I'd much rather see money put into creating affordable housing that includes co-ops — not just social housing. But alas, there's no money for real change.

The tax issue has become so huge for Canadians that we seem to be forgetting what they could potentially be paying for. When I consider that the average cost for daycare in B.C. is around $700 a month and the Universal Child Tax Credit is a mere $100, I scratch my head at those who think the Conservatives are helping the average Canadian.

Pauline: I think that it's certainly true that for a number of years now, parties on the so-called right of the spectrum have successfully framed the conversation around tax cuts. But I wonder whether that conversation is about to shift.

Nik: Week 1 of the campaign featured flying puffins, a Conservative staffer calling a network to discredit the father of a slain soldier and a rough start for the Liberal leader. Looking at the numbers, there were two significant take-aways from my perspective

First, support for the Bloc Québéecois is significantly dropping and all of the federalist parties are gaining at the expense of the BQ.

The latest CPAC-Nanos tracking in Quebec has a three-way statistical tie between the Bloc, the Conservatives and the Liberals. Likewise, NDP support is up in Quebec.

If this trend continues, the really big news in this election may be the decline of the Bloc and the resurgence of federalist parties in Quebec. A poor showing from the BQ would surely be a major setback for the sovereignty movement.

Second, in the past our political arena has been dominated by parties with strong regional bases: Liberals in Ontario, BQ in Quebec, Conservatives in the West.

I'm struck by the fact that the Conservatives and the Liberals are tied in both Ontario and Quebec at this point in the campaign. We may be entering a new phase where we have multiple federal parties that can justly claim national reach.

A world with a weakened BQ in the House of Commons and stronger national parties may actually be good news for our political system as political leaders have to lift themselves from former regional views to more of a national vision.

Pauline: Hi Sarah and Nik!

I've missed you since we left off this conversation back in the spring. Since we last talked, I've been in the U.S., Japan, Singapore and Indonesia, and I'm off to London and South Africa in the morning.

I've also spent time in Quebec, Ontario, Alberta and B.C. So I feel that I'm seeing Canada through a multi-faceted prism, in the full panoply of its beauty and its cruelty. I'm not loving everything I see.

I'm especially not loving the nastiness of this campaign, which is barely off the ground. We've already dealt with defecating birds, cheap attacks, low blows, strutting, preening, arrogance and mock humility. Yeesh!!!

On the other hand, the visceral reaction of Canadians to the exclusion of Elizabeth May from the leaders' debate made me proud: both the massive outcry (after all, what were all those men thinking?) and the speed of the backtracking.

It will be an immeasurably better show as a result! I don't know about you guys, but I think this is going to be a fascinating campaign. What do you think?