Online Panel Blog

Nik: Pauline and Sarah,

I thought one of the big stories this week was the Ontario budget and the continuing barbs between federal Finance Minister Jim Flaherty and the McGuinty government.

The feds were quick to pan the Ontario budget. Regardless, Flaherty's previous comment about Ontario being "the last place" in Canada to start a business could have the makings of a very effective Liberal attack ad in Ontario for the next election. Voters are used to governments taking shots at each other, but why take a shot at a whole province?

Strategically, however, it looks like the federal Tory strategy has been effective at refocusing economic angst away from the federal government onto the McGuinty government.

Maybe that's the true objective of the Harper government's communications strategy. Any thoughts?

Pauline: Jim Flaherty won his riding, Oshawa-Whitby, by a margin of 5.1 per cent in the last federal election. His wife, Christine Elliott, who holds the identical seat for the provincial Tories, did better in 2007, winning by eight per cent.

And who is the biggest employer in the region? General Motors, which has just shed 74,000 jobs worldwide, including many in this riding.

Do you think that losing a large number of well-paid manufacturing jobs that provide a good life for suburban Ontarians could be a subject of political tension? The majority of Ontarians think the federal government is in charge of the economy. So who are we kidding here?

Sarah: Hi Pauline and Nik,

I think the big story of this past week is the dismally low voter turnout for the four federal byelections. Averaged together, turnout was 27 per cent!

The cynic in me wants to know: How can we even talk about democracy in other countries when our approach at home is so pathetically limp?

Certainly interesting were the gains that the Green party made in Vancouver Quadra. That was probably more interesting than the constant battle between the Liberals and the Conservatives. But whether that is a specific signal of voter temperament is still hard to assess when only a fraction of the riding voted.

The byelections say to me that Canadians are not ready for a federal election. In fact, I think the average Canadian probably doesn’t feel informed enough yet to go to the polls.

Pauline: Hi Nik and Sarah,

Talking once a week like this has the advantage of creating perspective. The Cadman affair and NAFTA-gate are fading quickly in the "hot news" coverage, while the tawdry Spitzer story out of New York dominated even the Canadian media over the last few days.

Despite the Canadian fascination with the story, I cannot imagine such a political sex scandal happening in Canada.

Not because our call girls would be less expensive (I have no knowledge of that market). And not because it is hard to imagine our leading politicians as sex addicts (even though it is).

But simply because I think that attitudes towards sexual transgression are less judgmental in Canada — certainly in Quebec — than in the U.S.

Am I wrong, Nik? How do these things play in B.C., Sarah?

Sarah: Well, as I'm sure you know, anything goes in B.C. This province is basically one large swingers' club!

I think, though, that while Canadians might be less judgemental, we would still pounce upon an opportunity such as this to grill and humiliate a politician who has built a reputation on being a solid moral citizen. It is just too tempting.

I do think that Spitzer might have done better had he played the pity card. This worked well in B.C. when, after getting arrested for drunk driving, premier Gordon Campbell cried, "But I have a disease!"

Nik: Hi Pauline and Sarah,

Ottawa might be deluged in snow but politically things are hot. The Cadman affair, a budget passed, a spat with a premier — they are all the makings of a very disruptive and volatile federal political environment.

The biggest surprise was the Cadman affair. For a government that won an election based on voter anger directed at the federal Liberals on issues related to trust and ethics, the Chuck Cadman controversy is bad news for the Harper Tories.

What makes this a problem is the existence of the recording of the prime minister. Setting aside who said what and whether an insurance policy was offered, the prime minister has to bring some clarity to what he knew and what he thinks actually transpired.

Trust and ethics are part of the core Conservative brand franchise and the Tories have to bring some sort of closure to this before this issue it takes on a life of its own. I'd watch out for the RCMP and what they decide to do. Remember, polling showed that the announcement of a criminal investigation by the RCMP in the 2006 federal election derailed the Liberal campaign and set in motion a Conservative victory.

Pauline: Having just returned from travel south of the border, it has also been fascinating to see, for the first time I can remember, a Canadian issue in the U.S. presidential primaries and the U.S. media.

The accumulation of the things you are describing, plus the NAFTA-gate kerfuffle, it all adds up to something potentially very damaging in addition to the trust and integrity factor: A blow to the image of competence that Stephen Harper has very successfully maintained in his minority government.