Environment Canada says there's a 50-50 chance that Hurricane Earl will make landfall at Nova Scotia on Saturday.

Speaking to reporters in Dartmouth on Wednesday, Environment Canada officials said the most likely storm track has Earl hitting Yarmouth in a couple of days. They stressed, however, that the storm is still 2½ to three days away, and the forecast could change again.

Chris Fogarty, program supervisor for the Canadian Hurricane Centre, said the storm could bring sustained winds of 140 km/h at landfall, making it a Category 1 hurricane.

Hurricane Earl brought heavy rain and winds to some islands in the northeastern Caribbean earlier this week, and the storm is expected to approach the North Carolina coast by late Thursday before heading toward Atlantic Canada.

All of Atlantic Canada affected

The storm will mean rough weather for all three Maritime provinces.

Earl will likely hit Nova Scotia as either a strong tropical storm or a Category 1 hurricane, and the province will likely bear the brunt of the strongest winds, on the eastern side of the storm. New Brunswick will likely experience the most rain, on the western side of the storm.

The chances of the storm hitting New Brunswick or Prince Edward Island at hurricane strength are at 10 to 20 per cent, Fogarty said. Storms are classified as hurricanes when they reach sustained winds of 119 km/h or stronger.

Newfoundland and Labrador, meanwhile, would get off relatively easily in the current forecast.

The province may even see some sun and cloud, though strong winds are possible for western Newfoundland. The storm should no longer be tropical by the time it reaches Labrador, bringing winds of no more than 90 km/h to the Labrador Sea.

The storm's potential is already having an impact.

Two cruise ships have cancelled trips to Sydney, N.S., for fear of rough weather, and a cruise ship bound for Halifax this weekend is going to Boston instead.

And the Department of Natural Resources in the province is considering closing beaches, day-use and camping parks, and the Shubenacadie Wildlife Park because of possible bad weather conditions.

'Large hurricane'

Environment Canada says it's too early to speak about specific details. The hurricane's track could take it as far west as western New Brunswick and as far east as Cape Breton, Fogarty said.

The storm could be affected by the warm weather currently hitting Atlantic Canada. Fogarty said Earl is "moving into an environment similar to where it formed."

Sea surface temperatures, which can fuel a storm as they rise, are running warmer than average, and are about 2 C warmer than when Hurricane Juan hit Nova Scotia in 2003. Juan smashed though Nova Scotia and Prince Edward Island, leaving seven people dead and causing at least $100 million in damage.

Earl was downgraded to a Category 3 storm early Wednesday, but it's still a "'large hurricane," the U.S. National Hurricane Center said.

$250K revenue loss predicted

At Sydney, the cruise ship cancellations will be expensive for the port and the local business community.

Bernadette MacNeil, the manager of cruise marketing and development with the Sydney Ports Corporation, said the loss of revenue will be about $250,000.

"Merchants would have had extra staff scheduled for those days," she said. "The tour operators are impacted in a big way, obviously. They have to unravel and undo all their work for the organization and the co-ordination of the buses and the guides and the venues that were expecting them. So you can understand why it's such a disappointment to all of us."

The provincial Department of Natural Resources said it will decide on potential closures as the storm gets closer.

Anyone who cancels a reservation for this weekend at a provincial camping park will get a full refund, the department said.

Meanwhile, natural gas company Encana was shuttling workers from its drilling rig off the coast of Nova Scotia.

On Prince Edward Island, Charlottetown wharf management is keeping a wary eye on the storm. "If it gets really bad they like to have all the boats off the wharf just as a precaution," said Rick Martijn, a member of the Charlottetown Yacht Club.

In New Brunswick, the Saint John Port Authority is watching for any changes in its busy cruise ship schedule. Cruise ships are expected Thursday, Saturday and Monday.

Environment Canada says official watches and warnings will likely be necessary beginning early Thursday for the waters off the Maritimes and late Thursday for Nova Scotia. Ocean swell from Earl will reach Nova Scotia on Thursday as well.

Be prepared

The weather statement said for now the public should pay close attention to any weekend plans that could be affected by high winds or heavy rain.

Officials stressed at the news conference the need for Nova Scotians and Nova Scotian businesses to prepare for the storm, including having emergency kits and securing property to prevent projectiles.

The Emergency Measures Organization said everyone should be prepared to be self-sufficient for 72 hours.

Fogarty said the active hurricane season forecast by meteorologists is starting to materialize. Forecasters are also watching the storm potential of tropical storm Fiona in the Caribbean and tropical storm Gaston in the eastern Atlantic.

The Atlantic hurricane season officially runs from June 1 to Nov. 30