Good Monday afternoon to everyone. As I was out walking the dog with my wife this morning, she remarked at how much milder it felt today than on the weekend.
I'm sure most in the Maritimes have noticed the swing in temperatures between Saturday night and today. Even as we move through the evening, our temperatures will continue to rise across the region.
The reason for this is that we are currently located in the warm sector of a deepening area of low pressure that is currently centred near the great lakes.
The warm sector is the area of a low-pressure system located between the cold front (solid blue line with triangles) and the warm front (solid red line with the half circles).
The warm sector is often characterized by a strong pull of warm, moist air from the south in southerly winds. The current low is drawing up this warm air from the southeastern U.S., up the eastern seaboard, and now into Atlantic Canada.
This pull of warm air will be so strong that by midnight tonight many in the Maritimes will have temperatures in the double digits! Of course the milder weather is also coming in with a round of rain, with general rainfall amounts for us to likely end up in the range of 10 to 20 mm.
Also of note is that this is the same weather system that has brought a rapid increase in temperatures to the Buffalo area (18 degrees as I type this) giving rise to worries of extensive flooding due to their recent extreme snowfall event.
Snow possible later this week
While we deal with mild and rainy weather today and tonight, Wednesday night through Thursday is a whole different story.
Moving through midweek a coastal area of low pressure will develop off the Carolinas. This low-pressure system will then move up the seaboard and through the Maritimes, with a possible track any where from the Bay of Fundy to out closer to Sable Island.
In either case there will be an area of the Maritimes at risk of seeing a swath of significant snow (15+ cm). The further west the track (Bay of Fundy) the more likely this swath of snow is centred around central and northern New Brunswick.
A more easterly track (off the Atlantic coast of Nova Scotia) will position this swath around southern N.B., P.E.I., and parts of northern Nova Scotia. This is the weather system that is going to hold most of my attention for the rest of the week so stay tuned for more updates as I work on it.