Hurricane Jose's biggest weather impact on Nova Scotia will likely be rain Wednesday, as the storm is expected to stall well south of the province.
According to the latest forecast from the U.S.-based National Hurricane Center, the storm's centre is expected to pass well offshore of North Carolina today and well east of New Jersey's coast on Wednesday.
As the storm stalls east of Long Island, N.Y., it is expected to become post-tropical as winds weaken.
Since the strongest winds and roughest surf are closely tied to the storm's centre, those conditions will remain south of Nova Scotia.
While winds will increase in the province Wednesday into Thursday, the National Hurricane Center forecasts there is a less than 20 per cent chance that tropical storm conditions will hit southern Nova Scotia, and less than 10 per cent chance in the remainder of the province.
Tropical storm conditions are defined as a sustained average wind speed of 63 km/h or greater.
Wave-prediction models show there could be three- to four-metre waves in the vicinity of the southwest coast late Tuesday into Wednesday. Those may generate a rough and pounding surf, but at this time there appears to be little threat of coastal flooding or damage.
"We don't expect any [coastal flooding or damage] at this point," said Jim Murtha, acting program manager for the Canadian Hurricane Centre.
"We are aware that there is a new moon on Wednesday of this week, so we will watch to see if there are any changes in the expected surf conditions in the event that they combine with the higher tides to produce any local issues."
There will also be stronger currents in coastal waters Tuesday and Wednesday; recreational users should be extra cautious.
A weak cold front moving in from the west on Wednesday is likely to draw some rain or showers up from Jose into Nova Scotia. Most predictions are for general rainfall amounts of 10 to 20 millimetres, which is manageable by our standards in the province.
Due to the tropical source of the rain, some localized downpours can't be completely ruled out. Downpours could reach more than 50 millimetres, but are not expected to be widespread.
Simple precautions, such as checking to make sure drainage on your property is free and clear of any debris, are likely adequate.
There does remain a degree of uncertainty in computer guidance for the storm this week. Updates to position and track will have an impact on the forecast for the rain and wind in Nova Scotia.