Almost 15 years since the Canadian government outlawed cod harvesting off Newfoundland's northeast coast, federal fisheries scientists say cod stocks remain in peril.

A stock assessment report released Thursday shows no significant gains for the cod stock, despite some anecdotal reports on gains in some inshore areas.

Northern cod stocks remain so low, it is difficult to even estimate the biomass, a research scientist says.
(CBC)

Indeed, the stock remains in such a poor state that Department of Fisheries and Oceans cannot provide a valid numerical estimate on the stock size.

"It's just a shadow of what it used to be," John Brattey, a research scientist in St. John's, told CBC News.

The assessment report, based on a bottom-trawl survey and written after a consultation with experts, shows little evidence to suggest northern cod may soon — or ever — return to commercially exploitable levels.

Brattey pointed to a graph in the report, which shows how the biomass plummeted just before a 1992 moratorium on commercial fishing was imposed, and then continued to drop even after domestic fleets were tied up.

In the years since, the biomass has remained flat and has been "so low that it barely comes off the bottom axis of the graph," Brattey said.

DFO estimates that the biomass, including offshore stocks, is about four per cent of what was observed during the 1980s. During those years, adult cod in the biomass topped one million tonnes.

Despite dire warnings from scientists, the federal government has been under pressure from commercial fishermen and recreational anglers to open up small-scale cod harvesting.

Last year, Fisheries Minister Loyola Hearn allowed a five-week recreational fishery in which ordinary citizens could catch their own cod in inshore bays and coves.

Data on inshore cod are not consistent. A modest increase was found in the spawner biomass in the inshore central area, from 16,100 tonnes in 2006 to 19,900 tonnes in 2007. However, the report cautions that the number is well below historic levels.

When the moratorium came into effect in July 1992, an estimated 20,000 fishermen, plant workers and others lost their key source of income, with officials describing it as the biggest one-time layoff in Canadian history.

The closure was soon followed by a shutdown of fishing on the south coast, with only a few parts of the fishery ever opened again.

The impact of the fisheries collapse has been profound, particularly in rural communities that relied for generations on the inshore fishery. The 2006 census reported a population of 505,469, down sharply from the 1991 count of 568,000.