Support for the federal Conservatives in the Atlantic provinces dropped significantly this spring, a new poll suggests, and anger over Prime Minister Stephen Harper's handling of the Atlantic Accord issue could be to blame.

Prime Minister Stephen Harper has lost significant support in Atlantic Canada, a new poll shows.
(CBC)

Results of the Corporate Research Associates poll suggest satisfaction with Harper's Tories dropped across the region, but markedly so in Nova Scotia and especially in Newfoundland and Labrador.

Only 17 per cent of Newfoundland and Labrador respondents in the poll conducted over three weeks in May said they were completely or mostly satisfied with the Conservatives' performance, down sharply from 47 per cent in February.

Regionally, the satisfaction rating was 36 per cent, far below the 50 per cent reading logged three months earlier.

CRA president Don Mills said anger over Harper's decision to include natural resources revenue in the equalization formula — putting at risk gains that Newfoundland and Labrador and Nova Scotia made in the 2005 Atlantic Accord — is the leading cause.

Mills added that Newfoundland and Labrador Premier Danny Williams is strongly influencing voter opinion, particularly in his home province.

Source: Corporate Research Associates

Poll respondents who would vote Conservative
Region	Feb. 2007	May 2007
Atlantic	39%	30%
N.L.	49%	17%
N.S.	32%	30%
N.B.	40%	40%
P.E.I.	38%	35%

"Mr. Williams has won the battle for public opinion with regard to the budget issue surrounding the Atlantic Accord," Mills said.

The poll surveyed 1,509 Atlantic Canadians between May 9 and May 31 — well after the Harper budget was tabled in March, and well before Nova Scotia MP Bill Casey voted against the Conservatives' budget earlier this week.

Casey was later expelled from caucus.

When asked what party they would vote for if an election were held today, 30 per cent of respondents in the region picked the Tories, down from 39 per cent in February.

The poll showed the Tories are trailing the Liberals in all four provinces. A steep decline was recorded in Newfoundland and Labrador, while the Tories had small drops in Nova Scotia and Prince Edward Island, and held their own in firm voter support in New Brunswick.

The Maritime results suggest that dropping satisfaction levels had not translated into substantial changes in voter preference.  

The margin of error for the Atlantic-wide sample is 2.5 per cent, although the error rate for provincial results alone rises to 4.9 per cent, 19 times out of 20.

Even so, Mills said the results should serve as a warning to incumbent Tory MPs.

"It would certainly put their position in jeopardy, I would say," said Mills, a Halifax-based pollster.

The Liberals appear ready to capitalize on the public mood, particularly in the wake of Casey's ejection from the federal Conservative caucus.

"As this is gaining momentum into the next federal election, it could mean almost a total wipeout for the party in Atlantic Canada," Liberal senator George Baker said earlier this week.

'A crack in the armour' — Williams

Williams, a Progressive Conservative, has openly encouraged voters in his province to ignore Conservative candidates in the next federal election. The province currently has three Conservative MPs.

Newfoundland and Labrador Premier Danny Williams has encouraged voters to choose anyone other than a Conservative candidate in the next federal election.
(CBC)

"It's a crack in the armour is the best way I could put it," said Williams, responding to the poll results.

Williams had obtained a written pledge from Harper during the 2006 federal election campaign that a Conservative government would exclude non-renewable resources in any new equalization formula.

But the formula included in March's budget changes that, and a Memorial University economist estimated this spring that Newfoundland and Labrador alone will lose about $1 billion over the next 13 years.

Had the Harper government maintained its commitment, economist Wade Locke found, Newfoundland and Labrador would have picked up an additional $11 billion.

Williams said other provinces should take heed of what happened.

"My message is quite simple," he said. "If he broke a promise to me and he broke a promise to Nova Scotians and Saskatchewanians, then he'll do it to you."

Williams and Saskatchewan Premier Lorne Calvert, a New Democrat, have become allies in recent months on the equalization front.