Swine flu will hit New Brunswick earlier than originally expected, according to health officials.

That could have a significant impact on hospitals, says Dr. Eilish Cleary, chief medical officer.

"In many cases, intense and prolonged intensive care is necessary," she said.

So steps may have to be taken to free up hospital beds and staff. Elective surgeries, for example, could be cancelled, she said.

"We believe that a return to significant levels of activity of pandemic influenza in New Brunswick is inevitable," said Cleary. "The impact will be determined by the number of, by the timing, ... severe cases that we see."

Previous predictions

Normally, the flu season begins in late October. That's when health officials expected to see an increase in the number of pandemic flu virus cases.

But in the past two weeks, the United States, Mexico and Japan have all seen increased cases of swine flu, which suggests there will be an early start to the flu season in New Brunswick, said Cleary.

"If a pattern is shown that it is becoming established in the northern hemisphere, it is only a matter of time before we see an increase in activity in New Brunswick," she said.

An estimated 30 per cent of New Brunswickers will get swine flu, said Cleary, but most will likely have only a mild case.

Some people are at greater risk of serious complications, including children under the age of five, women in the late stages of pregnancy, First Nations people and others who have medical conditions such as diabetes or lung disease.

Healthy people can also have severe complications, so Cleary urges all to take precautions, such as washing one's hands and staying home when sick.

Vaccination clinics will be set up throughout the province, but a vaccine is not expected to be available until late November.