Horses were evacuated from a farm in Maugerville, N.B., on Monday afternoon. (Submitted by Judith Connolly)Emergency officials in Fredericton are bracing for what they expect to be near-record flood levels.

The floodwaters of the St. John River are expected to go beyond the 2005 level of 7.8 metres, said Andy Morton, deputy director of New Brunswick's Emergency Measures Organization.

"It could be very, very significant," Morton said.

The waters in Fredericton reached seven metres on Tuesday and with as much as 100 millimetres of rain forecast for parts of the province, the level was expected to reach 7.4 metres by Wednesday morning.

Emergency Measures is anxious for the rain in the province to stop so it can do a more detailed analysis of the St. John River basin, he said. But rain is forecast in Thursday for much of the province.

Projections for the Fredericton area show as many as 920 properties could be affected by the flood waters if the river reaches eight metres above sea level.

In 2005, about 500 houses were affected, with several families being forced from their homes.

If the water levels surpass those recorded in 2005, this spring's flooding will be the second-highest in New Brunswick's recorded history, but the water is still expected to be about 40 centimetres lower than it was in 1973.

Bob Martin, a spokesman with Fredericton's emergency operations centre, said officials are treating the flooding as if it could exceed the record set in 1973.

"When you do that, you start including a bigger area, more streets," Martin said. "You start losing ramps onto your bridges."

Be prepared to leave homes, residents told

Youth go for a float on what used to be a baseball diamond in Morrell Park in Fredericton. (Submitted by JC Hache)Residents living along the river from Fredericton to Jemseg should be prepared to leave their homes, Morton said.

Fredericton fire department officials told CBC News anyone who lives within sight of the St. John River should register with the Red Cross.

Residents need to heed the warnings, but the situation is not at the point where a state of emergency should be declared, said Public Safety Minister John Foran.

About 189 people have already registered with the Red Cross and about one-third of families registered have voluntarily left their homes, said Kerry Appleton, spokeswoman for the organization.

The Red Cross is operating at the flood command post in Burton and at the University of New Brunswick campus in Fredericton. The university has opened its residences to families with nowhere else to go. About 21 families had moved in as of Tuesday afternoon.

Sections of Route 105 outside Fredericton are flooded and remain closed. Tripp Settlement Road, Rusagonis Road, Elms Road, Bass River Point Road and parts of Route 690 near Lakeville Corner and Princess Park are also closed because of flooding. The Gagetown ferry has stopped running because of the high waters.

Residents of Maugerville are being warned that if they do not leave their homes on Tuesday, they may be stuck in their residences until the water recedes.

"Don't be expecting to see an Oromocto fire truck pull up to your dooryard and hand you supplies," said Oromocto fire Chief Jody Price. "That will probably not happen. We're seeing roads being eroded right now, and probably within a few days, probably by the end of the day, we will not be able to move on those roads with vehicles."

As the water levels rise, emergency crews will soon only be going into flooded areas for medical emergencies and even then, it may take hours before they can reach those in need, Price said.

Some residents wait it out

Water covers a residential street just outside Fredericton. (Submitted by Carol Wakeham)The EMO has told all people who decide to stay in their houses to be prepared to be self-sufficient for at least seven days.

There are a lot of pragmatic residents along the river who have dealt with the floods for generations, said the EMO's Morton.

"The water will come up and the water will come down and they'll still be there," Morton said.

The water in Maugerville resident Robert Robichaud's basement was more than 30 centimetres deep on Tuesday and he knows it's going to rise.

Robichaud has spent the last week moving everything onto tables and shelves. He said he's so worried he can't sleep at night but leaving his home unattended is out of the question.

"I know I can't stop the water but it makes me feel better being here," Robichaud said. "I know I am looking after my house."

Robichaud said his house sustained $10,000 damage during the 2005 floods.

Maugerville-area potato farmer Gordon Harvey said Tuesday morning that he believes the flood waters will destroy his crop this year.

Harvey said after living along the river for years, his family knows what to expect. "We've learned how far up we need to move things."

Flood threat broadened

Flood problems are also moving downstream.

Water levels are expected to reach flood levels in Saint John and Quispamsis in southern New Brunswick by Tuesday afternoon.

Individuals living on the northern part of the river basin should also be aware of potential flooding, Morton said.

Rain and snow melt hitting New Brunswick from Quebec and Maine could cause flooding from Saint-François to Woodstock by Wednesday, Morton said.

Emergency Measures is forecasting the following water levels:

• In Fredericton, the water level is expected to exceed 8.2 metres by Thursday. Flood stage is 6.5 metres.
• In Maugerville, the water level is expected to increase to 6.6 metres by Thursday. Flood stage is 6.0 metres.
• In Jemseg, the water level is expected to reach 5.5 metres by Thursday. Flood stage is 4.3 metres.
• In Grand Lake, the water level is expected to increase to 5.4 metres by Thursday. Flood stage is 5.0 metres.
• In Sheffield-Lakeville Corner, the water level is expected to reach 5.5 metres by Thursday. Flood stage is 4.8 metres.
• In Oak Point, the water level is expected to reach 4.5 metres by Thursday. Flood stage is 4.7 metres.
• In Quispamsis and Saint John, the water level is expected to be 4.3 metres by Thursday. Flood stage is 4.2 metres.