Denis Coderre is still in the lead according to the latest CROP poll commissioned by Radio-Canada, but Mélanie Joly may be best poised to come from behind for a surprise victory.

CROP surveyed 1,001 adults via an online panel about their voting intentions and opinion of candidates vying for Montrealers' votes on Nov. 3. 

Coderre remains the favourite, with 31 per cent of respondents saying they'd vote for him. In second place is Joly, with 17 per cent support despite the fact that only 36 per cent of those polled said they felt they knew her as a candidate.

“I think she represents the anti-politician,” says Youri Rivest, the vice-president of the polling company.

Rivest says Joly may be the answer a lot of people who are tired of politics are looking for.

Of all the mayoralty candidates running in Montreal, CROP poll respondents said they weren't very familiar with Joly, but had a favourable impression of the first-time candidate.

Still, the electorate is very volatile, says Rivest — only 27 per cent of respondents said they knew for sure who they'd be voting for come election day. The rest said they either didn't know who to vote for, or that they might change their minds at the last minute.

And then there are the people who may not even vote. Just over half those polled said they would definitely be voting in this election.


The poll was conducted between Oct. 11-15, 2013 by asking 1,001 Montrealers of at least 18 years of age to participate in an online panel;

The information gathered was adjusted to reflect the distribution of the population of Montreal according to borough populations, gender, age and mother tongue of the respondents;

There is no way to estimate or measure the reliability of the poll sample given its character. The margin of error does not apply;

Despite its disadvantages, this method can be useful in gathering public opinion.