A new poll suggests Winnipeg Mayor Sam Katz has a sizeable lead in voter support heading into October's civic election.

According to the results of the Probe Research/Winnipeg Free Press poll, 51 per cent of those asked said they supported Katz.

The poll, which took place March 8-25, asked 603 Winnipeg adults via telephone who they would support in a hypothetical race for mayor.

Scott Mackay, president of Probe Research, said Katz's lead is substantial but not surprising for an incumbent.

If New Democratic MP Judy Wasylycia-Leis decides to run for mayor, she could be a significant challenger, Mackay said.

Wasylycia-Leis received the support of slightly more than one in three respondents.

"It is substantial when you consider that this figure emerges at a time when she hasn't even declared herself formally as a candidate," Mackay said. "Presumably in the context of an actual campaign, her numbers would rise because she will have had the chance to mobilize her troops and get the themes of her campaign out."

Wasylycia-Leis, 58, has represented Winnipeg North in Ottawa since 1997. She was also a cabinet minister in the Manitoba government of Howard Pawley from 1986 to 1988.

According to Wasylycia-Leis, she has been urged by a number of people to take aim at municipal politics and challenge Katz.

Mackay said the poll results suggest support for Katz is strong among affluent Winnipeg men, and support for Wasylycia-Leis is strong among less affluent women.

Participants in the poll could also choose Coun. Russ Wyatt, who received seven per cent support; Winnipeg Chamber of Commerce president Dave Angus, who received five per cent support; and Coun. Lillian Thomas, who received two per cent support.

Only Thomas and Katz have officially announced their candidacy.

About one-quarter of the poll's respondents were undecided about who they would support for mayor.

Winnipeg's civic election is slated for Oct. 27.