Floodwaters are already covering much of the land around Morris, even through the crest is not expected until April 11. (Marcy Markusa/CBC)

The first and highest crest of the Red River could arrive in Winnipeg on Wednesday, forced up by ice jams.

Flood forecasters are predicting the crest could be around 2006 levels, which would cause some damage but not be as dire as in 1997. Not counting the impact on homes, the 2006 flood caused $12 million damage.

"You know, this is a major flood. And you know, if we are better prepared for it and we have more limited damage than in the past, it is still a major flood," said Steve Ashton, the province's emergency measures minister.

'They are about as prepared as I've seen the municipalities.'—Don Brennan, Emergency Measures Organization

Even so, provincial officials say they are mostly ready. In southern Manitoba, several communities are close to being completely sealed up behind ring dikes and closed roads.

"They are about as prepared as I've seen the municipalities," said Don Brennan, who heads up Manitoba's Emergency Measures Organization.

What makes things unpredictable, however, is all the ice sitting on the river. It could force an early crest in the city of Winnipeg anytime, said provincial flood forecaster Alf Warkentin.

'You know, this is a major flood. And you know, if we are better prepared for it and we have more limited damage than in the past, it is still a major flood.'—Emergency Measures Minister Steve Ashton

"As soon as the ice is out of the city the crest is going to be reduced. The longer the ice stays, the higher the probability of a high crest," he said.

That could force officials to open the floodway gates immediately, despite concerns about operating the diversion channel with ice in the river. It's a situation that is being assessed hour to hour, said Ashton.

Waiting and watching what happens

"We are watching what happens to the ice. If the ice starts to move and break up, it will make that decision easier," he said.

If ice floes get into the floodway channel, they could clog up and create jams or slam into the St. Mary's Road bridge and cause structural damage.

Already there is water and ice in the floodway from spring run-off and rising waters spilling into the channel. Provincial workers were busy into the night Tuesday, trying to break up a jam that lodged at the base of the St. Mary's Road bridge.

Officials said they need to take action because the bridge is old and doesn't need the extra stress caused by the weight of the ice.

The main crest of the river — the floodwaters that washed through Fargo, North Dakota, on March 28 — is expected in Winnipeg around April 16.

That crest is not expected to be as high as early crest coming through the city this week. That's because the floodway channel should certainly be open by then, diverting much of the water around the city.

Overland flooding a big worry

The other big concern in Manitoba is overland flooding. The snow and ice covering fields and yards is just starting to melt after a prolonged bout of unseasonably cold weather.

But many culverts and sewer inlets are clogged with ice and the water has nowhere to go.

Some residents along the Red River south of Selkirk were on high alert Monday night after an ice jam shifted into their area and forced water levels up more than a metre in just four hours.

The water is threatening eight homes but six of them have sandbag dikes protecting them. Residents at the two homes without dikes have refused to leave.

The rural municipalities of West St. Paul, East St. Paul, Blanchard, St. Laurent, Franklin and St. Clements declared states of emergency during a period of warm temperatures and melting last month.

Nearly 40 homes were flooded when ice jams clogged the river and forced water to spill over the banks. As well, snowmelt couldn't drain away because of frozen sewer inlets and culverts.

Easter travel could be tricky

Floodwaters could put a crimp in Easter weekend travel plans.

A large section of Highway 75, the main artery between Winnipeg and the U.S. border, was closed Tuesday. And Neil Gobelle, spokesperson for Manitoba Infrastructure and Transportation, said the situation is changing quickly.

"Down in the Letellier area, over the Moray River bridge, we had … water lapping up over the bridge there. In the St. Jean Baptiste area we do have Highway 246 closed at the Red River Bridge. That's where we have the jersey barriers — the concrete barriers down on the bridge to help weigh it down. And both [Highways] 246 and 217 are closed in that area."

Gobelle is also keeping an eye on Highway 23, west of Morris, for possible restrictions. And while it's dry now, Highway 200 in the Emerson area may also have restrictions if the water rises rapidly.