Feature

Poll Tracker: 2016 Manitoba provincial election

Vote and seat projections for the upcoming Manitoba election from Éric Grenier.

Vote and seat projections by Éric Grenier for the election scheduled for April 19, 2016

The following are projections for the Manitoba election scheduled for April 19, 2016. These numbers were last updated on April 18, 2016, and reflect the best estimates as of April 18, 2016, the last day of polls included in the model.

The vote projection shows the weighted average of polling conducted in the province, along with adjustments made for the lack of a full slate of candidates for the Liberal and Green parties. The seat projections show the estimated number of seats each party would win if an election were held on the last day of polling.

The vote and seat projections in the central columns above reflect the average estimates while the low and high projections are based on the over-estimation or under-estimation of support the polls are likely to make. The minimum and maximum projections are designed to include 95 per cent of potential outcomes.

The projections are subject to the margin of error of the polls included in the model, as well as the inherent inability of the projection model to make perfect estimations of real-world dynamics. The projection ranges are a reflection of the degree of error polls have made in recent elections.

The chart below shows the evolution of the seat and vote projections and ranges, as well as a regional breakdown of seat projections. "Rural" refers to the region outside of the city of Winnipeg.


The following chart lists the provincial polls currently included in the projection model, as well as the weight each poll carries.

By including polls in the projection, no representation as to the accuracy or equivalency of the methods used is implied, nor should inclusion be seen as an acceptance, endorsement, or legitimisation of their results. However, the weighting scheme takes reliability partly into account.

Poll / Media SponsorWeight (%)MethodDatesSampleMOE (%)NDPPCLIBGPOTH
Insights West18NETApr. 15-18518n/a28%53%10%7%1
Insightrix37NETApr. 14-18600n/a22%49%19%9%1%
Forum33IVRApr. 16-171,083+/- 321%52%18%9%0%
Mainstreet / Postmedia12IVRApr. 141,809+/- 2.326%55%11%9%-
Insights West0NETApr. 5-7505n/a26%49%17%7%1%
Insightrix / Global News-CJOB 6800TELMar. 28-Apr. 7800+/- 3.524%49%22%5%1%
Mainstreet / Postmedia0IVRApr. 51,844+/- 2.324%50%17%9%-
Probe / Winnipeg Free Press-CTV0TELMar. 28-Apr. 41,000+/- 3.128%46%20%-6%
Mainstreet / Postmedia0IVRMar. 291,860+/- 2.323%45%24%8%-
Mainstreet / Postmedia0IVRMar. 191,772+/- 2.324%44%24%7%-
Forum / Winnipeg Free Press0IVRMar. 13930+/- 322%46%23%8%1%
Mainstreet / Postmedia0IVRMar. 121,764+/- 2.327%43%24%7%-
Mainstreet / Postmedia0IVRFeb. 201,798+/- 2.321%50%23%6%-
Mainstreet / Postmedia0IVRFeb. 111,825+/- 2.321%51%20%7%-
Mainstreet / Postmedia0IVRJan. 251,628+/- 2.420%52%20%9%-
Mainstreet / Postmedia0IVRJan. 71,552+/- 2.523%44%27%6%-

(If on a mobile device, you may need to tilt your screen horizontally in order to see the full chart above.)

  • Poll / Media Sponsor shows the pollster that conducted the survey, and the media outlet (if applicable) that either commissioned the poll or first reported on it. When available, a link to the pollster's report is provided.
  • Weight (%) refers to the weight the poll carries in the aggregation. Weight is determined by the date of the survey, the sample size, and the track record of the polling firm.
  • Method refers to the mode of contact for the survey. Interactive voice response (IVR) polls feature automated calls, where survey-takers respond via the keypad of their telephone. Polls marked as TEL are those conducted over the telephone by live-interviewers. Online polls (NET) are conducted via internet panels, and do not carry a margin of error.
  • Dates lists the field dates of the survey.
  • Sample refers to the number of total respondents interviewed, including undecideds.
  • MOE (%) lists the reported margin of error of the poll at the 95 per cent confidence interval (19 times out of 20).
  • NDP/PC/LIB/GP/OTH shows the results of the poll among decided (and leaning, when included) voters only, for the New Democrats (NDP), Progressive Conservatives (PC), Liberals (LIB), Greens (GP), and other parties and/or independents (OTH).