Katz holds edge in mayoral race: CBC poll

Winnipeg Mayor Sam Katz holds an 11 percentage point lead over rival Judy Wasylycia-Leis, an exclusive poll of 600 voters by Probe Research for CBC News suggests.

Incumbent popular among younger voters

Winnipeg Mayor Sam Katz holds an 11-point lead over rival Juldy Wasylycia-Leis, a CBC poll shows.
Winnipeg Mayor Sam Katz would be re-elected if an election were held today, an exclusive CBC News poll of voter intentions suggests.

Katz holds an 11 percentage point lead over rival Judy Wasylycia-Leis, the poll of 600 voters by Probe Research found.

The survey, conducted between June 8 and June 22, shows Katz enjoying the support of 54 per cent of decided Winnipeg voters versus 43 per cent for Wasylycia-Leis. Avery Petrowski, the only other declared candidate in the mayoral race, had the backing of three per cent of decided voters polled.

The poll suggests Mayor Sam Katz is by far the most popular candidate in Northeast Winnipeg. ((CBC))
The results are considered accurate within plus or minus four per cent, 19 times out of 20. Thirteen per cent of those surveyed refused to identify their preferred choice for mayor.

An earlier poll in March with other "hypothetical" mayoral candidates found 51 per cent of decided voters preferred Katz while 36 per cent favoured Wasylycia-Leis.

The latest poll suggests Katz is by far the most popular candidate in Northeast Winnipeg with the support of 70 per cent of decided voters versus just 28 per cent for Wasylycia-Leis. Katz also holds the lead in every other geographic area of the city, except for the Core Area (Downtown Wolseley, West End) where Wasylycia-Leis holds the lead, 55 per cent to 41 per cent.

The civic election is Oct. 28.

Voters under 35 preferred Katz

Young voters, those aged between 18 and 34 years, were far more likely to vote for Katz than his rival. The survey showed Katz having the support of 63 per cent of younger voters while his rival, the former NDP MP, had the support of 32 per cent of young voters. Also across the city, men were more likely to vote for Katz (59 per cent) versus 36 per cent who backed Wasylycia-Leis.

Former NDP MP Judy Wasylycia-Leis has the support of the majority of low income earners, a CBC poll shows. ((House of Commons))
Wasylycia-Leis had a slight edge of support among older voters aged 55 and over — 53 per cent of whom said they would vote for her, as opposed to 46 per cent for Katz.

The poll also suggests higher income earners are more likely to back Katz while lower income earners back his rival. Fifty seven per cent of decided voters earning $60,000 to $79,000 supported Katz, compared with 39 per cent for Wasylycia-Leis. Conversely, Katz garnered support among just 45 per cent of voters earning less than $30,000 while his opponent won 52 per cent support.

Sticking to party lines

The poll results also break down along political lines with 81 per cent of decided Conservative Party supporters backing Katz, versus 18 per cent for his main rival.

On the other hand, 61 per cent of decided New Democratic Party supporters back Wasylycia-Leis, as opposed to 35 per cent of decided NDP supporters backing Katz. Those who identify themselves as traditional Liberal Party supporters are split: 49 per cent for Katz and 46 per cent for Wasylycia-Leis.

The exclusive CBC News-commissioned poll by Probe Research also asked voters about their key issues in the civic campaign.

Stay tuned to CBC for more on the poll results later Monday.

Breakdown by gender, age, education and income of how those polled would vote for mayor.